Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userCosmic rays and climate change over the past 1000 million years
130
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
The Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity has been postulated by others to vary cyclically with a peak to valley ratio of ~3:1, as the Solar System moves from the Spiral Arm to the Inter-Arm regions of the Galaxy. These intensities have been correlated with global temperatures and used to support the hypothesis of GCR induced climate change. In this paper we show that the model used to deduce such a large ratio of Arm to Interarm GCR intensity requires unlikely values of some of the GCR parameters, particularly the diffusion length in the interstellar medium, if as seems likely to be the case, the diffusion is homogeneous. Comparison is made with the existing gamma ray astronomy data and this also indicates that the ratio is not large. The variation in the intensity is probably of order 10-20% and should be no more than 30% as the Solar System moves between these two regions, unless the conventional parameters of the GCR are incorrect. In addition we show that the variation of the GCR intensity, as the trajectory of the Solar System oscillates about the Galactic Plane, is too small to account for the extinctions of species as has been postulated unless, again, conventional assumptions about the GCR parameters are not correct.
rate research
Read More
Using information on geomagnetic activity, sunspot numbers and cosmogenic isotopes, supported by historic eclipse images and in conjunction with models, it has been possible to reconstruct annual means of solar wind speed and number density and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) intensity since 1611, when telescopic observations of sunspots began. These models are developed and tuned using data recorded by near-Earth interplanetary spacecraft and by solar magnetograms over the past 53 years. In this paper, we use these reconstructions to quantify power input into the magnetosphere over the past 400 years. For each year, both the annual mean power input is computed and its distribution in daily means. This is possible because the distribution of daily values divided by the annual mean is shown to maintain the same lognormal form with a constant variance. This study is another important step towards the development of a physics-based, long-term climatology of space weather conditions.
Using the reconstruction of power input to the magnetosphere given in Paper 1 (arXiv:1708.04904), we reconstruct annual means of geomagnetic indices over the past 400 years to within a 1-sigma error of +/-20 pc. In addition, we study the behaviour of the lognormal distribution of daily and hourly values about these annual means and show that we can also reconstruct the fraction of geomagnetically-active (storm-like) days and (substorm-like) hours in each year to accuracies of 50-60 pc. The results are the first physics-based quantification of the space weather conditions in both the Dalton and Maunder minima. We predict terrestrial disturbance levels in future repeats of these minima, allowing for the weakening of Earths dipole moment.
Various experiments have been conducted to search for the radio emission from ultra-high-energy particles interacting in the lunar regolith. Although they have not yielded any detections, they have been successful in establishing upper limits on the flux of these particles. I present a review of these experiments in which I re-evaluate their sensitivity to radio pulses, accounting for effects which were neglected in the original reports, and compare them with prospective near-future experiments. In several cases, I find that past experiments were substantially less sensitive than previously believed. I apply existing analytic models to determine the resulting limits on the fluxes of ultra-high-energy neutrinos and cosmic rays. In the latter case, I amend the model to accurately reflect the fraction of the primary particle energy which manifests in the resulting particle cascade, resulting in a substantial improvement in the estimated sensitivity to cosmic rays. Although these models are in need of further refinement, in particular to incorporate the effects of small-scale lunar surface roughness, their application here indicates that a proposed experiment with the LOFAR telescope would test predictions of the neutrino flux from exotic-physics models, and an experiment with a phased-array feed on a large single-dish telescope such as the Parkes radio telescope would allow the first detection of cosmic rays with this technique, with an expected rate of one detection per 140 hours.
Assessments of impacts of climate change and future projections over the Indian region, have so far relied on a single regional climate model (RCM) - eg., the PRECIS RCM of the Hadley Centre, UK. While these assessments have provided inputs to various reports (e.g., INCCA 2010; NATCOMM2 2012), it is important to have an ensemble of climate projections drawn from multiple RCMs due to large uncertainties in regional-scale climate projections. Ensembles of multi-RCM projections driven under different perceivable socio-economic scenarios are required to capture the probable path of growth, and provide the behavior of future climate and impacts on various biophysical systems and economic sectors dependent on such systems. The Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (CCCR-IITM) has generated an ensemble of high resolution downscaled projections of regional climate and monsoon over South Asia until 2100 for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)using a RCM (ICTP-RegCM4) at 50 km horizontal resolution, by driving the regional model with lateral and lower boundary conditions from multiple global atmosphere-ocean coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The future projections are based on three Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (viz., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) of the IPCC.
We analyze the database prepared by Brecke (Brecke 2011) for violent conflict, covering some 600 years of human history. After normalizing the data for the global human population, we find that the number of casualties tends to follow a power law over the whole data series for the period considered, with no evidence of periodicity. We also observe that the number of conflicts, again normalized for the human population, show a decreasing trend as a function of time. Our result agree with previous analyses on this subject and tend to support the idea that war is a statistical phenomenon related to the network structure of the human society.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
