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Register a new userSpace Climate and Space Weather over the past 400 years: 1. The Power input to the Magnetosphere
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Added by
Mike Lockwood Prof.
Publication date
2017
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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Using information on geomagnetic activity, sunspot numbers and cosmogenic isotopes, supported by historic eclipse images and in conjunction with models, it has been possible to reconstruct annual means of solar wind speed and number density and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) intensity since 1611, when telescopic observations of sunspots began. These models are developed and tuned using data recorded by near-Earth interplanetary spacecraft and by solar magnetograms over the past 53 years. In this paper, we use these reconstructions to quantify power input into the magnetosphere over the past 400 years. For each year, both the annual mean power input is computed and its distribution in daily means. This is possible because the distribution of daily values divided by the annual mean is shown to maintain the same lognormal form with a constant variance. This study is another important step towards the development of a physics-based, long-term climatology of space weather conditions.
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Using the reconstruction of power input to the magnetosphere given in Paper 1 (arXiv:1708.04904), we reconstruct annual means of geomagnetic indices over the past 400 years to within a 1-sigma error of +/-20 pc. In addition, we study the behaviour of the lognormal distribution of daily and hourly values about these annual means and show that we can also reconstruct the fraction of geomagnetically-active (storm-like) days and (substorm-like) hours in each year to accuracies of 50-60 pc. The results are the first physics-based quantification of the space weather conditions in both the Dalton and Maunder minima. We predict terrestrial disturbance levels in future repeats of these minima, allowing for the weakening of Earths dipole moment.
The Carrington storm (September 1/2, 1859) is one of the largest magnetic storms ever observed and it has caused global auroral displays in low-latitude areas, together with a series of multiple magnetic storms during August 28 and September 4, 1859. In this study, we revisit contemporary auroral observation records to extract information on their elevation angle, color, and direction to investigate this stormy interval in detail. We first examine their equatorward boundary of auroral emission with multiple colors based on descriptions of elevation angle and color. We find that their locations were 36.5 deg ILAT on August 28/29 and 32.7 deg ILAT on September 1/2, suggesting that trapped electrons moved to, at least, L~1.55 and L~1.41, respectively. The equatorward boundary of purely red emission was likely located at 30.8 deg ILAT on September 1/2. If purely red emission was a stable auroral red arc, it would suggest that trapped protons moved to, at least, L~1.36. This reconstruction with observed auroral emission regions provides conservative estimations of magnetic storm intensities. We compare the auroral records with magnetic observations. We confirm that multiple magnetic storms occurred during this stormy interval, and that the equatorward expansion of the auroral oval is consistent with the timing of magnetic disturbances. It is possible that the August 28/29 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) cleared out the interplanetary medium, making the ICMEs for the Carrington storm on September 1/2 more geoeffective.
The Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX in Spanish) and National Space Weather Laboratory (LANCE in Spanish) were organized in 2014 and in 2016 respectively to provide space weather monitoring and alerts, as well as scientific research in Mexico. In this work, we present the results of the first joint observations of two events (22 June, 2015, and 29 September, 2015) with our local network of instruments and their related products. This network includes the MEXART radio telescope (solar flare and radio burst), the Compact Astronomical Low-frequency, Low-cost Instrument for Spectroscopy in Transportable Observatories (CALLISTO) at MEXART station (solar radio burst), the Mexico City Cosmic Ray Observatory (cosmics ray fluxes), GPS receiver networks (ionospheric disturbances), and the Geomagnetic Observatory of Teoloyucan (geomagnetic field). The observations show that we detected significant space weather effects over the Mexican territory: geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances (22 June, 2015), variations in cosmic rays fluxes, and also radio communications interferences (29 September, 2015). The effects of these perturbations were registered, for the first time, using space weather products by SCiESMEX: TEC maps, regional geomagnetic index K mex , radio spectrographs of low frequency, and cosmic rays fluxes. These results prove the importance of monitoring space weather phenomena in the region and the need to strengthening the instrumentation network.
The Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity has been postulated by others to vary cyclically with a peak to valley ratio of ~3:1, as the Solar System moves from the Spiral Arm to the Inter-Arm regions of the Galaxy. These intensities have been correlated with global temperatures and used to support the hypothesis of GCR induced climate change. In this paper we show that the model used to deduce such a large ratio of Arm to Interarm GCR intensity requires unlikely values of some of the GCR parameters, particularly the diffusion length in the interstellar medium, if as seems likely to be the case, the diffusion is homogeneous. Comparison is made with the existing gamma ray astronomy data and this also indicates that the ratio is not large. The variation in the intensity is probably of order 10-20% and should be no more than 30% as the Solar System moves between these two regions, unless the conventional parameters of the GCR are incorrect. In addition we show that the variation of the GCR intensity, as the trajectory of the Solar System oscillates about the Galactic Plane, is too small to account for the extinctions of species as has been postulated unless, again, conventional assumptions about the GCR parameters are not correct.
MHD-based global space weather models have mostly been developed and maintained at academic institutions. While the free spirit approach of academia enables the rapid emergence and testing of new ideas and methods, the lack of long-term stability and support makes this arrangement very challenging. This paper describes a successful example of a university-based group, the Center of Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) at the University of Michigan, that developed and maintained the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) and its core element, the BATS-R-US extended MHD code. It took a quarter of a century to develop this capability and reach its present level of maturity that makes it suitable for research use by the space physics community through the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) as well as operational use by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
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