No Arabic abstract
The goal of this paper is to prove a result conjectured in Follmer and Schachermayer [FS07], even in slightly more general form. Suppose that S is a continuous semimartingale and satisfies a large deviations estimate; this is a particular growth condition on the mean-variance tradeoff process of S. We show that S then allows asymptotic exponential arbitrage with exponentially decaying failure probability, which is a strong and quantitative form of long-term arbitrage. In contrast to Follmer and Schachermayer [FS07], our result does not assume that S is a diffusion, nor does it need any ergodicity assumption.
We consider the problem of superhedging under volatility uncertainty for an investor allowed to dynamically trade the underlying asset, and statically trade European call options for all possible strikes with some given maturity. This problem is classically approached by means of the Skorohod Embedding Problem (SEP). Instead, we provide a dual formulation which converts the superhedging problem into a continuous martingale optimal transportation problem. We then show that this formulation allows us to recover previously known results about lookback options. In particular, our methodology induces a new proof of the optimality of Az{e}ma-Yor solution of the SEP for a certain class of lookback options. Unlike the SEP technique, our approach applies to a large class of exotics and is suitable for numerical approximation techniques.
We consider a family of mixed processes given as the sum of a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $Hin(3/4,1)$ and a multiple of an independent standard Brownian motion, the family being indexed by the scaling factor in front of the Brownian motion. We analyze the underlying markets with methods from large financial markets. More precisely, we show the existence of a strong asymptotic arbitrage (defined as in Kabanov and Kramkov [Finance Stoch. 2(2), 143--172 (1998)]) when the scaling factor converges to zero. We apply a result of Kabanov and Kramkov [Finance Stoch. 2(2), 143--172 (1998)] that characterizes the notion of strong asymptotic arbitrage in terms of the entire asymptotic separation of two sequences of probability measures. The main part of the paper consists of proving the entire separation and is based on a dichotomy result for sequences of Gaussian measures and the concept of relative entropy.
We present novel martingale concentration inequalities for martingale differences with finite Orlicz-$psi_alpha$ norms. Such martingale differences with weak exponential-type tails scatters in many statistical applications and can be heavier than sub-exponential distributions. In the case of one dimension, we prove in general that for a sequence of scalar-valued supermartingale difference, the tail bound depends solely on the sum of squared Orlicz-$psi_alpha$ norms instead of the maximal Orlicz-$psi_alpha$ norm, generalizing the results of Lesigne & Volny (2001) and Fan et al. (2012). In the multidimensional case, using a dimension reduction lemma proposed by Kallenberg & Sztencel (1991) we show that essentially the same concentration tail bound holds for vector-valued martingale difference sequences.
This is part two of our study on the spreading properties of the Lotka-Volterra competition-diffusion systems with a stable coexistence state. We focus on the case when the initial data are exponential decaying. By establishing a comparison principle for Hamilton-Jacobi equations, we are able to apply the Hamilton-Jacobi approach for Fisher-KPP equation due to Freidlin, Evans and Souganidis. As a result, the exact formulas of spreading speeds and their dependence on initial data are derived. Our results indicate that sometimes the spreading speed of the slower species is nonlocally determined. Connections of our results with the traveling profile due to Tang and Fife, as well as the more recent spreading result of Girardin and Lam, will be discussed.
Let g : $Omega$ = [0, 1] d $rightarrow$ R denote a Lipschitz function that can be evaluated at each point, but at the price of a heavy computational time. Let X stand for a random variable with values in $Omega$ such that one is able to simulate, at least approximately, according to the restriction of the law of X to any subset of $Omega$. For example, thanks to Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, this is always possible when X admits a density that is known up to a normalizing constant. In this context, given a deterministic threshold T such that the failure probability p := P(g(X) > T) may be very low, our goal is to estimate the latter with a minimal number of calls to g. In this aim, building on Cohen et al. [9], we propose a recursive and optimal algorithm that selects on the fly areas of interest and estimate their respective probabilities.