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Register a new userModifying Bayesian Networks by Probability Constraints
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Added by
Yun Peng
Publication date
2012
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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This paper deals with the following problem: modify a Bayesian network to satisfy a given set of probability constraints by only change its conditional probability tables, and the probability distribution of the resulting network should be as close as possible to that of the original network. We propose to solve this problem by extending IPFP (iterative proportional fitting procedure) to probability distributions represented by Bayesian networks. The resulting algorithm E-IPFP is further developed to D-IPFP, which reduces the computational cost by decomposing a global EIPFP into a set of smaller local E-IPFP problems. Limited analysis is provided, including the convergence proofs of the two algorithms. Computer experiments were conducted to validate the algorithms. The results are consistent with the theoretical analysis.
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Probability estimation is one of the fundamental tasks in statistics and machine learning. However, standard methods for probability estimation on discrete objects do not handle object structure in a satisfactory manner. In this paper, we derive a general Bayesian network formulation for probability estimation on leaf-labeled trees that enables flexible approximations which can generalize beyond observations. We show that efficient algorithms for learning Bayesian networks can be easily extended to probability estimation on this challenging structured space. Experiments on both synthetic and real data show that our methods greatly outperform the current practice of using the empirical distribution, as well as a previous effort for probability estimation on trees.
We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data for the learning of causal network structure or probability values at nodes are available. Constrained Bayesian Networks generalize a Bayesian Network such that probabilities can be symbolic, arithmetic expressions and where the meaning of the network is constrained by finitely many formulas from the theory of the reals. A formal semantics for constrained Bayesian Networks over first-order logic of the reals is given, which enables non-linear and non-convex optimisation algorithms that rely on decision procedures for this logic, and supports the composition of several constrained Bayesian Networks. A non-trivial case study in arms control, where few or no data are available to assess the effectiveness of an arms inspection process, evaluates our approach. An open-access prototype implementation of these foundations and their algorithms uses the SMT solver Z3 as decision procedure, leverages an open-source package for Bayesian inference to symbolic computation, and is evaluated experimentally.
This paper proposes various new analysis techniques for Bayes networks in which conditional probability tables (CPTs) may contain symbolic variables. The key idea is to exploit scalable and powerful techniques for synthesis problems in parametric Markov chains. Our techniques are applicable to arbitrarily many, possibly dependent parameters that may occur in various CPTs. This lifts the severe restrictions on parameters, e.g., by restricting the number of parametrized CPTs to one or two, or by avoiding parameter dependencies between several CPTs, in existing works for parametric Bayes networks (pBNs). We describe how our techniques can be used for various pBN synthesis problems studied in the literature such as computing sensitivity functions (and values), simple and difference parameter tuning, ratio parameter tuning, and minimal change tuning. Experiments on several benchmarks show that our prototypical tool built on top of the probabilistic model checker Storm can handle several hundreds of parameters.
Domains where supervised models are deployed often come with task-specific constraints, such as prior expert knowledge on the ground-truth function, or desiderata like safety and fairness. We introduce a novel probabilistic framework for reasoning with such constraints and formulate a prior that enables us to effectively incorporate them into Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), including a variant that can be amortized over tasks. The resulting Output-Constrained BNN (OC-BNN) is fully consistent with the Bayesian framework for uncertainty quantification and is amenable to black-box inference. Unlike typical BNN inference in uninterpretable parameter space, OC-BNNs widen the range of functional knowledge that can be incorporated, especially for model users without expertise in machine learning. We demonstrate the efficacy of OC-BNNs on real-world datasets, spanning multiple domains such as healthcare, criminal justice, and credit scoring.
The modified first laws of thermodynamics at the black hole horizon and the cosmological horizon of the Schwarzschild de Sitter black hole and the apparent horizon of the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology are derived by the surface tensions, respectively. The corresponding Smarr relations are obeyed. For the black hole, the cosmological constant is first treated as a fixed constant, and then as a variable associated to the pressure. The law at the apparent horizon takes the same form as that at the cosmological horizon, but is different from that at the black hole horizon. The positive temperatures guarantee the appearance of the worked terms in the modified laws at the cosmological and apparent horizons. While they can disappear at the black hole horizon.
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