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We analyze in situ measurements of solar wind velocity obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft during the solar activity cycle 23. We calculated a robust complexity measure, the permutation entropy (S) of solar wind time series at different phases of a solar activity cycle. The permutation entropy measure is first tested on the known dynamical data before its application to solar wind time series. It is observed that complexity of solar wind velocity fluctuations at 1 AU shows hysteresis phenomenon while following the ascending and descending phases of the activity cycle. This indicates the presence of multistability in the dynamics governing the solar wind velocity over a solar activity cycle.
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This review article summarizes the advancement in the studies of Earth-affecting solar transients in the last decade that encompasses most of solar cycle 24. The Sun Earth is an integrated physical system in which the space environment of the Earth sustains continuous influence from mass, magnetic field and radiation energy output of the Sun in varying time scales from minutes to millennium. This article addresses short time scale events, from minutes to days that directly cause transient disturbances in the Earth space environment and generate intense adverse effects on advanced technological systems of human society. Such transient events largely fall into the following four types: (1) solar flares, (2) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) including their interplanetary counterparts ICMEs, (3) solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and (4) stream interaction regions (SIRs) including corotating interaction regions (CIRs). In the last decade, the unprecedented multi viewpoint observations of the Sun from space, enabled by STEREO Ahead/Behind spacecraft in combination with a suite of observatories along the Sun-Earth lines, have provided much more accurate and global measurements of the size, speed, propagation direction and morphology of CMEs in both 3-D and over a large volume in the heliosphere. Several advanced MHD models have been developed to simulate realistic CME events from the initiation on the Sun until their arrival at 1 AU. Much progress has been made on detailed kinematic and dynamic behaviors of CMEs, including non-radial motion, rotation and deformation of CMEs, CME-CME interaction, and stealth CMEs and problematic ICMEs. The knowledge about SEPs has also been significantly improved.
The cyclic, enigmatic, and ubiquitous magnetism of the Sun provides the energy we need to survive and has the ability to destroy our technologically dependent civilization. Never before has understanding solar magnetism and forecasting its behavior been so relevant. Indeed, on a broader canvas, understanding solar magnetism is a gateway to understanding the evolution and activity of other stars - the Sun is an astrophysical Rosetta Stone. Despite the centuries of observation, the past century of precise characterization, and significant advances in theoretical and numerical modeling over the past several decades, we have broken the cypher of the Suns global-scale magnetism. Using a host of observables spanning 140 years we will revisit an observational concept, the extended solar cycle, (ESC) that came to the fore in the mid-1980s but almost completely disappeared from the common consciousness of the global solar physics less than a sunspot cycle later - it is unclear why. Using a recently identified solar fiducial time, the end (or termination) of a solar cycle, we employ superposed epoch analysis to identify the ESC as a mapping of the Suns fundamental magnetic activity cycle and also as a recurring spatio-temporal unit of solar evolution. The ESC is a pattern from which the spatio-temporal pattern, and numerical modulation, of sunspots is produced. This effort illustrates that the ESC is the manifestation of the Suns Hale Cycle. We will close by pointing out areas of investigation indicated by the pattern of the Hale Cycle that may permit the conversion from observational correspondence to fundamental physical processes and a leap forward in understanding solar activity.
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact. Nevertheless, the well-known difficulty is how to accurately predict, on the basis of various recorded solar activity indices, the complete evolution of future solar cycles, due to highly complex dynamical and stochastic processes involved, mainly related to interaction of different components of internal magnetic fields. There are two main distinct classes of solar cycle prediction methods: the precursor-like ones and the mathematical-numerical ones. The main characteristic of precursor techniques, both purely solar and geomagnetic, is their physical basis. Conversely, the non-precursor methods use different mathematical and/or numerical properties of the known temporal evolution of solar activity indices to extract useful information for predicting future activity. For current solar cycle #24 we obtained fairly good statistical performances from both precursor and purely numerical methods, such as the so-called solar precursor and nonlinear ones. To further check the performances of these prediction techniques, we compared the early predictions for the next solar cycle #25. Preliminary results support some coherence of the prediction methods considered and confirm the current trend of a relatively low solar activity.
The data of sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and solar flare index during cycle 23 are analyzed to investigate the intermediate-term periodicities. Power spectral analysis has been performed separately for the data of the whole disk, northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Several significant midrange periodicities ($sim$175, 133, 113, 104, 84, 63 days) are detected in sunspot activity. Most of the periodicities in sunspot numbers generally agree with those of sunspot areas during the solar cycle 23. The study reveals that the periodic variations in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun show a kind of asymmetrical behavior. Periodicities of $sim$175 days and $sim$133 days are highly significant in the sunspot data of northern hemisphere showing consistency with the findings of Lean (1990) during solar cycles 12-21. On the other hand, southern hemisphere shows a strong periodicity of about 85 days in terms of sunspot activity. The analysis of solar flare index data of the same time interval does not show any significant peak. The different periodic behavior of sunspot and flare activity can be understood in the light of hypothesis proposed by Ballester et al. (2002), which suggests that during cycle 23, the periodic emergence of magnetic flux partly takes place away from developed sunspot groups and hence may not necessarily increase the magnetic complexity of sunspot groups that leads to the generation of flares.
Similar to the Sun, other stars shed mass and magnetic flux via ubiquitous quasi-steady wind and episodic stellar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We investigate the mass loss rate via solar wind and CMEs as a function of solar magnetic variability represented in terms of sunspot number and solar X-ray background luminosity. We estimate the contribution of CMEs to the total solar wind mass flux in the ecliptic and beyond, and its variation over different phases of the solar activity cycles. The study exploits the number of sunspots observed, coronagraphic observations of CMEs near the Sun by SOHO/LASCO, in situ observations of the solar wind at 1 AU by WIND, and GOES X-ray flux during solar cycle 23 and 24. We note that the X-ray background luminosity, occurrence rate of CMEs and ICMEs, solar wind mass flux, and associated mass loss rates from the Sun do not decrease as strongly as the sunspot number from the maximum of solar cycle 23 to the next maximum. Our study confirms a true physical increase in CME activity relative to the sunspot number in cycle 24. We show that the CME occurrence rate and associated mass loss rate can be better predicted by X-ray background luminosity than the sunspot number. The solar wind mass loss rate which is an order of magnitude more than the CME mass loss rate shows no obvious dependency on cyclic variation in sunspot number and solar X-ray background luminosity. These results have implications to the study of solar-type stars.
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