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Register a new userDeciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: 140 Years Of The `Extended Solar Cycle -- Mapping the Hale Cycle
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The cyclic, enigmatic, and ubiquitous magnetism of the Sun provides the energy we need to survive and has the ability to destroy our technologically dependent civilization. Never before has understanding solar magnetism and forecasting its behavior been so relevant. Indeed, on a broader canvas, understanding solar magnetism is a gateway to understanding the evolution and activity of other stars - the Sun is an astrophysical Rosetta Stone. Despite the centuries of observation, the past century of precise characterization, and significant advances in theoretical and numerical modeling over the past several decades, we have broken the cypher of the Suns global-scale magnetism. Using a host of observables spanning 140 years we will revisit an observational concept, the extended solar cycle, (ESC) that came to the fore in the mid-1980s but almost completely disappeared from the common consciousness of the global solar physics less than a sunspot cycle later - it is unclear why. Using a recently identified solar fiducial time, the end (or termination) of a solar cycle, we employ superposed epoch analysis to identify the ESC as a mapping of the Suns fundamental magnetic activity cycle and also as a recurring spatio-temporal unit of solar evolution. The ESC is a pattern from which the spatio-temporal pattern, and numerical modulation, of sunspots is produced. This effort illustrates that the ESC is the manifestation of the Suns Hale Cycle. We will close by pointing out areas of investigation indicated by the pattern of the Hale Cycle that may permit the conversion from observational correspondence to fundamental physical processes and a leap forward in understanding solar activity.
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The Suns variability is controlled by the progression and interaction of the magnetized systems that form the 22-year magnetic activity cycle (the Hale Cycle) as they march from their origin at $sim$55 degrees latitude to the equator, over $sim$19 years. We will discuss the end point of that progression, dubbed terminator events, and our means of diagnosing them. Based on the terminations of Hale Magnetic Cycles, we construct a new solar activity clock which maps all solar magnetic activity onto a single normalized epoch. The Terminators appear at phase $0 * 2pi$ on this clock (by definition), then solar polar field reversals commence at $0.2 * 2pi$, and the geomagnetically quiet intervals centered around solar minimum, start at $0.6 * 2pi$ and end at the terminator, lasting 40% of the normalized cycle length. With this onset of quiescence, dubbed a pre-terminator, the Sun shows a radical reduction in active region complexity and (like the terminator events) is associated with the time when the solar radio flux crosses F10.7=90 sfu -- effectively marking the commencement of solar minimum conditions. In this paper we use the terminator-based clock to illustrate a range of phenomena associated with the pre-terminator event that further emphasize the strong interaction of the global-scale magnetic systems of the Hale Cycle.
We analyze in situ measurements of solar wind velocity obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft during the solar activity cycle 23. We calculated a robust complexity measure, the permutation entropy (S) of solar wind time series at different phases of a solar activity cycle. The permutation entropy measure is first tested on the known dynamical data before its application to solar wind time series. It is observed that complexity of solar wind velocity fluctuations at 1 AU shows hysteresis phenomenon while following the ascending and descending phases of the activity cycle. This indicates the presence of multistability in the dynamics governing the solar wind velocity over a solar activity cycle.
Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Suns internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ~22-years. The principal variation of sunspots, an ~11-year variation in number, modulates the amount of magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our Stars radiative, particulate and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11-year sunspot variation is intrinsically tied it to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22-year magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints, and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer scale variability.
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact. Nevertheless, the well-known difficulty is how to accurately predict, on the basis of various recorded solar activity indices, the complete evolution of future solar cycles, due to highly complex dynamical and stochastic processes involved, mainly related to interaction of different components of internal magnetic fields. There are two main distinct classes of solar cycle prediction methods: the precursor-like ones and the mathematical-numerical ones. The main characteristic of precursor techniques, both purely solar and geomagnetic, is their physical basis. Conversely, the non-precursor methods use different mathematical and/or numerical properties of the known temporal evolution of solar activity indices to extract useful information for predicting future activity. For current solar cycle #24 we obtained fairly good statistical performances from both precursor and purely numerical methods, such as the so-called solar precursor and nonlinear ones. To further check the performances of these prediction techniques, we compared the early predictions for the next solar cycle #25. Preliminary results support some coherence of the prediction methods considered and confirm the current trend of a relatively low solar activity.
We present a nonlinear mean-field model of the solar interior dynamics and dynamo, which reproduces the observed cyclic variations of the global magnetic field of the Sun, as well as the differential rotation and meridional circulation. Using this model, we explain, for the first time, the extended 22-year pattern of the solar torsional oscillations, observed as propagation of zonal variations of the angular velocity from high latitudes to the equator during the time equal to the full dynamo cycle. In the literature, this effect is usually attributed to the so-called extended solar cycle. In agreement with the commonly accepted idea our model shows that the torsional oscillations can be driven by a combinations of magnetic field effects acting on turbulent angular momentum transport, and the large-scale Lorentz force. We find that the 22-year pattern of the torsional oscillations can result from a combined effect of an overlap of subsequent magnetic cycles and magnetic quenching of the convective heat transport. The latter effect results in cyclic variations of the meridional circulation in the sunspot formation zone, in agreement with helioseismology results. The variations of the meridional circulation together with other drivers of the torsional oscillations maintain their migration to the equator during the 22-year magnetic cycle, resulting in the observed extended pattern of the torsional oscillations.
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