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Register a new userAccounting for risk of non linear portfolios: a novel Fourier approach
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The presence of non linear instruments is responsible for the emergence of non Gaussian features in the price changes distribution of realistic portfolios, even for Normally distributed risk factors. This is especially true for the benchmark Delta Gamma Normal model, which in general exhibits exponentially damped power law tails. We show how the knowledge of the model characteristic function leads to Fourier representations for two standard risk measures, the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall, and for their sensitivities with respect to the model parameters. We detail the numerical implementation of our formulae and we emphasizes the reliability and efficiency of our results in comparison with Monte Carlo simulation.
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This paper is directed to the financial community and focuses on the financial risks associated with climate change. It, specifically, addresses the estimate of climate risk embedded within a bank loan portfolio. During the 21st century, man-made carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere will raise global temperatures, resulting in severe and unpredictable physical damage across the globe. Another uncertainty associated with climate, known as the energy transition risk, comes from the unpredictable pace of political and legal actions to limit its impact. The Climate Extended Risk Model (CERM) adapts well known credit risk models. It proposes a method to calculate incremental credit losses on a loan portfolio that are rooted into physical and transition risks. The document provides detailed description of the model hypothesis and steps. This work was initiated by the association Green RWA (Risk Weighted Assets). It was written in collaboration with Jean-Baptiste Gaudemet, Anne Gruz, and Olivier Vinciguerra ([email protected]), who contributed their financial and risk expertise, taking care of its application to a pilot-portfolio. It extends the model proposed in a first white paper published by Green RWA (https://www.greenrwa.org/).
We present a general framework for portfolio risk management in discrete time, based on a replicating martingale. This martingale is learned from a finite sample in a supervised setting. The model learns the features necessary for an effective low-dimensional representation, overcoming the curse of dimensionality common to function approximation in high-dimensional spaces. We show results based on polynomial and neural network bases. Both offer superior results to naive Monte Carlo methods and other existing methods like least-squares Monte Carlo and replicating portfolios.
Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of financial contagion arises from indirect interconnections between financial institutions mediated by financial markets. This indirect interconnection occurs when financial institutions invest in common assets and is referred to as overlapping portfolios. In this work we quantify systemic risk from indirect interconnections between financial institutions. Having complete information of security holdings of major Mexican financial intermediaries and the ability to uniquely identify securities in their portfolios, allows us to represent the Mexican financial system as a bipartite network of securities and financial institutions. This makes it possible to quantify systemic risk arising from overlapping portfolios. We show that focusing only on direct exposures underestimates total systemic risk levels by up to 50%. By representing the financial system as a multi-layer network of direct exposures (default contagion) and indirect exposures (overlapping portfolios) we estimate the mutual influence of different channels of contagion. The method presented here is the first objective data-driven quantification of systemic risk on national scales that includes overlapping portfolios.
In Liang et al (2009), the current authors demonstrated that BSDEs can be reformulated as functional differential equations, and as an application, they solved BSDEs on general filtered probability spaces. In this paper the authors continue the study of functional differential equations and demonstrate how such approach can be used to solve FBSDEs. By this approach the equations can be solved in one direction altogether rather than in a forward and backward way. The solutions of FBSDEs are then employed to construct the weak solutions to a class of BSDE systems (not necessarily scalar) with quadratic growth, by a nonlinear version of Girsanovs transformation. As the solving procedure is constructive, the authors not only obtain the existence and uniqueness theorem, but also really work out the solutions to such class of BSDE systems with quadratic growth. Finally an optimal portfolio problem in incomplete markets is solved based on the functional differential equation approach and the nonlinear Girsanovs transformation.
Capital allocation principles are used in various contexts in which a risk capital or a cost of an aggregate position has to be allocated among its constituent parts. We study capital allocation principles in a performance measurement framework. We introduce the notation of suitability of allocations for performance measurement and show under different assumptions on the involved reward and risk measures that there exist suitable allocation methods. The existence of certain suitable allocation principles generally is given under rather strict assumptions on the underlying risk measure. Therefore we show, with a reformulated definition of suitability and in a slightly modified setting, that there is a known suitable allocation principle that does not require any properties of the underlying risk measure. Additionally we extend a previous characterization result from the literature from a mean-risk to a reward-risk setting. Formulations of this theory are also possible in a game theoretic setting.
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