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Register a new userSimulation-based model selection for dynamical systems in systems and population biology
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Computer simulations have become an important tool across the biomedical sciences and beyond. For many important problems several different models or hypotheses exist and choosing which one best describes reality or observed data is not straightforward. We therefore require suitable statistical tools that allow us to choose rationally between different mechanistic models of e.g. signal transduction or gene regulation networks. This is particularly challenging in systems biology where only a small number of molecular species can be assayed at any given time and all measurements are subject to measurement uncertainty. Here we develop such a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation and employing sequential Monte Carlo sampling. We show that our approach can be applied across a wide range of biological scenarios, and we illustrate its use on real data describing influenza dynamics and the JAK-STAT signalling pathway. Bayesian model selection strikes a balance between the complexity of the simulation models and their ability to describe observed data. The present approach enables us to employ the whole formal apparatus to any system that can be (efficiently) simulated, even when exact likelihoods are computationally intractable.
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Detailed modeling and simulation of biochemical systems is complicated by the problem of combinatorial complexity, an explosion in the number of species and reactions due to myriad protein-protein interactions and post-translational modifications. Rule-based modeling overcomes this problem by representing molecules as structured objects and encoding their interactions as pattern-based rules. This greatly simplifies the process of model specification, avoiding the tedious and error prone task of manually enumerating all species and reactions that can potentially exist in a system. From a simulation perspective, rule-based models can be expanded algorithmically into fully-enumerated reaction networks and simulated using a variety of network-based simulation methods, provided that the network is not exceedingly large. Alternatively, rule-based models can be simulated directly using particle-based kinetic Monte Carlo methods. This network-free approach produces exact stochastic trajectories with a computational cost that is independent of network size. However, memory and run time costs increase with the number of particles, limiting the size of system that can be feasibly simulated. Here, we present a hybrid particle/population simulation method that combines the best attributes of both the network-based and network-free approaches. The method takes as input a rule-based model and a user-specified subset of species to treat as population variables rather than as particles. The model is then transformed by a process of partial network expansion into a dynamically equivalent form that can be simulated using a population-adapted network-free simulator. The transformation method has been implemented within the open-source rule-based modeling platform BioNetGen, and resulting hybrid models can be simulated using the particle-based simulator NFsim.
Bayesian inference methods rely on numerical algorithms for both model selection and parameter inference. In general, these algorithms require a high computational effort to yield reliable estimates. One of the major challenges in phylogenetics is the estimation of the marginal likelihood. This quantity is commonly used for comparing different evolutionary models, but its calculation, even for simple models, incurs high computational cost. Another interesting challenge relates to the estimation of the posterior distribution. Often, long Markov chains are required to get sufficient samples to carry out parameter inference, especially for tree distributions. In general, these problems are addressed separately by using different procedures. Nested sampling (NS) is a Bayesian computation algorithm which provides the means to estimate marginal likelihoods together with their uncertainties, and to sample from the posterior distribution at no extra cost. The methods currently used in phylogenetics for marginal likelihood estimation lack in practicality due to their dependence on many tuning parameters and the inability of most implementations to provide a direct way to calculate the uncertainties associated with the estimates. To address these issues, we introduce NS to phylogenetics. Its performance is assessed under different scenarios and compared to established methods. We conclude that NS is a competitive and attractive algorithm for phylogenetic inference. An implementation is available as a package for BEAST 2 under the LGPL licence, accessible at https://github.com/BEAST2-Dev/nested-sampling.
For many stochastic models of interest in systems biology, such as those describing biochemical reaction networks, exact quantification of parameter uncertainty through statistical inference is intractable. Likelihood-free computational inference techniques enable parameter inference when the likelihood function for the model is intractable but the generation of many sample paths is feasible through stochastic simulation of the forward problem. The most common likelihood-free method in systems biology is approximate Bayesian computation that accepts parameters that result in low discrepancy between stochastic simulations and measured data. However, it can be difficult to assess how the accuracy of the resulting inferences are affected by the choice of acceptance threshold and discrepancy function. The pseudo-marginal approach is an alternative likelihood-free inference method that utilises a Monte Carlo estimate of the likelihood function. This approach has several advantages, particularly in the context of noisy, partially observed, time-course data typical in biochemical reaction network studies. Specifically, the pseudo-marginal approach facilitates exact inference and uncertainty quantification, and may be efficiently combined with particle filters for low variance, high-accuracy likelihood estimation. In this review, we provide a practical introduction to the pseudo-marginal approach using inference for biochemical reaction networks as a series of case studies. Implementations of key algorithms and examples are provided using the Julia programming language; a high performance, open source programming language for scientific computing.
Motivated by applications in systems biology, we seek a probabilistic framework based on Markov processes to represent intracellular processes. We review the formal relationships between different stochastic models referred to in the systems biology literature. As part of this review, we present a novel derivation of the differential Chapman-Kolmogorov equation for a general multidimensional Markov process made up of both continuous and jump processes. We start with the definition of a time-derivative for a probability density but place no restrictions on the probability distribution, in particular, we do not assume it to be confined to a region that has a surface (on which the probability is zero). In our derivation, the master equation gives the jump part of the Markov process while the Fokker-Planck equation gives the continuous part. We thereby sketch a {}``family tree for stochastic models in systems biology, providing explicit derivations of their formal relationship and clarifying assumptions involved.
Although reproducibility is a core tenet of the scientific method, it remains challenging to reproduce many results. Surprisingly, this also holds true for computational results in domains such as systems biology where there have been extensive standardization efforts. For example, Tiwari et al. recently found that they could only repeat 50% of published simulation results in systems biology. Toward improving the reproducibility of computational systems research, we identified several resources that investigators can leverage to make their research more accessible, executable, and comprehensible by others. In particular, we identified several domain standards and curation services, as well as powerful approaches pioneered by the software engineering industry that we believe many investigators could adopt. Together, we believe these approaches could substantially enhance the reproducibility of systems biology research. In turn, we believe enhanced reproducibility would accelerate the development of more sophisticated models that could inform precision medicine and synthetic biology.
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