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Register a new userConsistency of Bayesian procedures for variable selection
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George Casella
Publication date
2009
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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It has long been known that for the comparison of pairwise nested models, a decision based on the Bayes factor produces a consistent model selector (in the frequentist sense). Here we go beyond the usual consistency for nested pairwise models, and show that for a wide class of prior distributions, including intrinsic priors, the corresponding Bayesian procedure for variable selection in normal regression is consistent in the entire class of normal linear models. We find that the asymptotics of the Bayes factors for intrinsic priors are equivalent to those of the Schwarz (BIC) criterion. Also, recall that the Jeffreys--Lindley paradox refers to the well-known fact that a point null hypothesis on the normal mean parameter is always accepted when the variance of the conjugate prior goes to infinity. This implies that some limiting forms of proper prior distributions are not necessarily suitable for testing problems. Intrinsic priors are limits of proper prior distributions, and for finite sample sizes they have been proved to behave extremely well for variable selection in regression; a consequence of our results is that for intrinsic priors Lindleys paradox does not arise.
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We study the problem of high-dimensional variable selection via some two-step procedures. First we show that given some good initial estimator which is $ell_{infty}$-consistent but not necessarily variable selection consistent, we can apply the nonnegative Garrote, adaptive Lasso or hard-thresholding procedure to obtain a final estimator that is both estimation and variable selection consistent. Unlike the Lasso, our results do not require the irrepresentable condition which could fail easily even for moderate $p_n$ (Zhao and Yu, 2007) and it also allows $p_n$ to grow almost as fast as $exp(n)$ (for hard-thresholding there is no restriction on $p_n$). We also study the conditions under which the Ridge regression can be used as an initial estimator. We show that under a relaxed identifiable condition, the Ridge estimator is $ell_{infty}$-consistent. Such a condition is usually satisfied when $p_nle n$ and does not require the partial orthogonality between relevant and irrelevant covariates which is needed for the univariate regression in (Huang et al., 2008). Our numerical studies show that when using the Lasso or Ridge as initial estimator, the two-step procedures have a higher sparsity recovery rate than the Lasso or adaptive Lasso with univariate regression used in (Huang et al., 2008).
Variable selection in the linear regression model takes many apparent faces from both frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. In this paper we introduce a variable selection method referred to as a rescaled spike and slab model. We study the importance of prior hierarchical specifications and draw connections to frequentist generalized ridge regression estimation. Specifically, we study the usefulness of continuous bimodal priors to model hypervariance parameters, and the effect scaling has on the posterior mean through its relationship to penalization. Several model selection strategies, some frequentist and some Bayesian in nature, are developed and studied theoretically. We demonstrate the importance of selective shrinkage for effective variable selection in terms of risk misclassification, and show this is achieved using the posterior from a rescaled spike and slab model. We also show how to verify a procedures ability to reduce model uncertainty in finite samples using a specialized forward selection strategy. Using this tool, we illustrate the effectiveness of rescaled spike and slab models in reducing model uncertainty.
The dual problem of testing the predictive significance of a particular covariate, and identification of the set of relevant covariates is common in applied research and methodological investigations. To study this problem in the context of functional linear regression models with predictor variables observed over a grid and a scalar response, we consider basis expansions of the functional covariates and apply the likelihood ratio test. Based on p-values from testing each predictor, we propose a new variable selection method, which is consistent in selecting the relevant predictors from set of available predictors that is allowed to grow with the sample size n. Numerical simulations suggest that the proposed variable selection procedure outperforms existing methods found in the literature. A real dataset from weather stations in Japan is analyzed.
We consider a nonparametric additive model of a conditional mean function in which the number of variables and additive components may be larger than the sample size but the number of nonzero additive components is small relative to the sample size. The statistical problem is to determine which additive components are nonzero. The additive components are approximated by truncated series expansions with B-spline bases. With this approximation, the problem of component selection becomes that of selecting the groups of coefficients in the expansion. We apply the adaptive group Lasso to select nonzero components, using the group Lasso to obtain an initial estimator and reduce the dimension of the problem. We give conditions under which the group Lasso selects a model whose number of components is comparable with the underlying model, and the adaptive group Lasso selects the nonzero components correctly with probability approaching one as the sample size increases and achieves the optimal rate of convergence. The results of Monte Carlo experiments show that the adaptive group Lasso procedure works well with samples of moderate size. A data example is used to illustrate the application of the proposed method.
Discussion of Latent variable graphical model selection via convex optimization by Venkat Chandrasekaran, Pablo A. Parrilo and Alan S. Willsky [arXiv:1008.1290].
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