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Register a new userTopological structures in the equities market network
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We present a new method for articulating scale-dependent topological descriptions of the network structure inherent in many complex systems. The technique is based on Partition Decoupled Null Models, a new class of null models that incorporate the interaction of clustered partitions into a random model and generalize the Gaussian ensemble. As an application we analyze a correlation matrix derived from four years of close prices of equities in the NYSE and NASDAQ. In this example we expose (1) a natural structure composed of two interacting partitions of the market that both agrees with and generalizes standard notions of scale (eg., sector and industry) and (2) structure in the first partition that is a topological manifestation of a well-known pattern of capital flow called sector rotation. Our approach gives rise to a natural form of multiresolution analysis of the underlying time series that naturally decomposes the basic data in terms of the effects of the different scales at which it clusters. The equities market is a prototypical complex system and we expect that our approach will be of use in understanding a broad class of complex systems in which correlation structures are resident.
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We present an empirical study of the intertwined behaviour of members in a financial market. Exploiting a database where the broker that initiates an order book event can be identified, we decompose the correlation and response functions into contributions coming from different market participants and study how their behaviour is interconnected. We find evidence that (1) brokers are very heterogeneous in liquidity provision -- some are consistently liquidity providers while others are consistently liquidity takers. (2) The behaviour of brokers is strongly conditioned on the actions of {it other} brokers. In contrast brokers are only weakly influenced by the impact of their own previous orders. (3) The total impact of market orders is the result of a subtle compensation between the same broker pushing the price in one direction and the liquidity provision of other brokers pushing it in the opposite direction. These results enforce the picture of market dynamics being the result of the competition between heterogeneous participants interacting to form a complicated market ecology.
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The topological properties of interbank networks have been discussed widely in the literature mainly because of their relevance for systemic risk. Here we propose to use the Stochastic Block Model to investigate and perform a model selection among several possible two block organizations of the network: these include bipartite, core-periphery, and modular structures. We apply our method to the e-MID interbank market in the period 2010-2014 and we show that in normal conditions the most likely network organization is a bipartite structure. In exceptional conditions, such as after LTRO, one of the most important unconventional measures by ECB at the beginning of 2012, the most likely structure becomes a random one and only in 2014 the e-MID market went back to a normal bipartite organization. By investigating the strategy of individual banks, we explore possible explanations and we show that the disappearance of many lending banks and the strategy switch of a very small set of banks from borrower to lender is likely at the origin of this structural change.
We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible with uncorrelated random price changes. We then identify the principal components of these correlation matrices and demonstrate that a small number of components accounts for a large proportion of the variability of the markets that we consider. We then characterize the time-evolving relationships between the different assets by investigating the correlations between the asset price time series and principal components. Using this approach, we uncover notable changes that occurred in financial markets and identify the assets that were significantly affected by these changes. We show in particular that there was an increase in the strength of the relationships between several different markets following the 2007--2008 credit and liquidity crisis.
We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest rate change at time T, and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T) (t-T)^-$Omega$, with $Omega$ positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n(|t-T|) of pre-shocks before the interest rate change at time T. This is the first study to quantitatively relate the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and to uncover the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U. S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds Effective rate. Our results are consistent with the sign effect, in which bad news has a larger impact than good news. Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a market underreaction that lasts at least 1 trading day.
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