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Register a new userCosmic dynamics in the era of Extremely Large Telescopes
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The redshifts of all cosmologically distant sources are expected to experience a small, systematic drift as a function of time due to the evolution of the Universes expansion rate. A measurement of this effect would represent a direct and entirely model-independent determination of the expansion history of the Universe over a redshift range that is inaccessible to other methods. Here we investigate the impact of the next generation of Extremely Large Telescopes on the feasibility of detecting and characterising the cosmological redshift drift. We consider the Lyman alpha forest in the redshift range 2 < z < 5 and other absorption lines in the spectra of high redshift QSOs as the most suitable targets for a redshift drift experiment. Assuming photon-noise limited observations and using extensive Monte Carlo simulations we determine the accuracy to which the redshift drift can be measured from the Ly alpha forest as a function of signal-to-noise and redshift. Based on this relation and using the brightness and redshift distributions of known QSOs we find that a 42-m telescope is capable of unambiguously detecting the redshift drift over a period of ~20 yr using 4000 h of observing time. Such an experiment would provide independent evidence for the existence of dark energy without assuming spatial flatness, using any other cosmological constraints or making any other astrophysical assumption.
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Surveys reveal that terrestrial- to Neptune-sized planets (1 $< R <$ 4 R$_{rm{Earth}}$) are the most common type of planets in our galaxy. Detecting and characterizing such small planets around nearby stars holds the key to understanding the diversity of exoplanets and will ultimately address the ubiquitousness of life in the universe. The following fundamental questions will drive research in the next decade and beyond: (1) how common are terrestrial to Neptune-sized planets within a few AU of their host star, as a function of stellar mass? (2) How does planet composition depend on planet mass, orbital radius, and host star properties? (3) What are the energy budgets, atmospheric dynamics, and climates of the nearest worlds? Addressing these questions requires: a) diffraction-limited spatial resolution; b) stability and achievable contrast delivered by adaptive optics; and c) the light-gathering power of extremely large telescopes (ELTs), as well as multi-wavelength observations and all-sky coverage enabled by a comprehensive US ELT Program. Here we provide an overview of the challenge, and promise of success, in detecting and comprehensively characterizing small worlds around the very nearest stars to the Sun with ELTs. This white paper extends and complements the material presented in the findings and recommendations published in the National Academy reports on Exoplanet Science Strategy and Astrobiology Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe.
The field of time-domain astrophysics has entered the era of Multi-messenger Astronomy (MMA). One key science goal for the next decade (and beyond) will be to characterize gravitational wave (GW) and neutrino sources using the next generation of Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs). These studies will have a broad impact across astrophysics, informing our knowledge of the production and enrichment history of the heaviest chemical elements, constrain the dense matter equation of state, provide independent constraints on cosmology, increase our understanding of particle acceleration in shocks and jets, and study the lives of black holes in the universe. Future GW detectors will greatly improve their sensitivity during the coming decade, as will near-infrared telescopes capable of independently finding kilonovae from neutron star mergers. However, the electromagnetic counterparts to high-frequency (LIGO/Virgo band) GW sources will be distant and faint and thus demand ELT capabilities for characterization. ELTs will be important and necessary contributors to an advanced and complete multi-messenger network.
For nearly 40 years, dark matter has been widely assumed to be cold and collisionless. Cold dark matter models make fundamental predictions for the behavior of dark matter on small (<10 kpc) scales. These predictions include cuspy density profiles at the centers of dark matter halos and a halo mass function that increases as dN/dM ~ M^-1.9 down to very small masses. We suggest two observational programs relying on extremely large telescopes to critically test these predictions, and thus shed new light on the nature of dark matter. (1) Combining adaptive optics-enabled imaging with deep spectroscopy to measure the three-dimensional motions of stars within a sample of Local Group dwarf galaxies that are the cleanest dark matter laboratories known in the nearby universe. From these observations the inner slope of the dark matter density profile can be determined with an accuracy of 0.20 dex, enabling a central cusp to be distinguished from a core at 5 sigma significance. (2) Diffraction-limited AO imaging and integral field spectroscopy of gravitationally lensed galaxies and quasars to quantify the abundance of dark substructures in the halos of the lens galaxies and along the line of sight. Observations of 50 lensed arcs and 50 multiply-imaged quasars will be sufficient to measure the halo mass function over the range 10^7 < M < 10^10 Msun at cosmological scales, independent of the baryonic and stellar composition of those structures. These two observational probes provide complementary information about the small scale structure, with a joint self-consistent analysis mitigating limitations of either probe. This program will produce the strongest existing constraints on the properties of dark matter on small scales, allowing conclusive tests of alternative warm, fuzzy, and self-interacting dark matter models.
The processes that transform gas and dust in circumstellar disks into diverse exoplanets remain poorly understood. One key pathway is to study exoplanets as they form in their young ($sim$few~Myr) natal disks. Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs) such as GMT, TMT, or ELT, can be used to establish the initial chemical conditions, locations, and timescales of planet formation, via (1)~measuring the physical and chemical conditions in protoplanetary disks using infrared spectroscopy and (2)~studying planet-disk interactions using imaging and spectro-astrometry. Our current knowledge is based on a limited sample of targets, representing the brightest, most extreme cases, and thus almost certainly represents an incomplete understanding. ELTs will play a transformational role in this arena, thanks to the high spatial and spectral resolution data they will deliver. We recommend a key science program to conduct a volume-limited survey of high-resolution spectroscopy and high-contrast imaging of the nearest protoplanetary disks that would result in an unbiased, holistic picture of planet formation as it occurs.
We present a study of the effect of crowding on stellar photometry. We develop an analytical model through which we are able to predict the error in magnitude and color for a given star for any combination of telescope resolution, stellar luminosity function, background surface brightness, and distance. We test our predictions with Monte Carlo simulations of the LMC globular cluster NGC 1835, for resolutions corresponding to a seeing-limited telescope, the $HST$, and an AO-corrected 30-m (near diffraction limited) telescope. Our analytically predicted magnitude errors agree with the simulation results to within $sim$20%. The analytical model also predicts that errors in color are strongly affected by the correlation of crowding--induced photometric errors between bands as is seen in the simulations. Using additional Monte Carlo simulations and our analytical crowding model, we investigate the photometric accuracy which 30-m and 100-m Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs) will be able to achieve at distances extending to the Virgo cluster. We argue that for stellar populations work, ELTs quickly become crowding-limited, suggesting that low--Strehl AO systems may be sufficient for this type of science.
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