No Arabic abstract
Research on methods of meta-analysis (the synthesis of related study results) has dealt with many simple study indices, but less attention has been paid to the issue of summarizing regression slopes. In part this is because of the many complications that arise when real sets of regression models are accumulated. We outline the complexities involved in synthesizing slopes, describe existing methods of analysis and present a multivariate generalized least squares approach to the synthesis of regression slopes.
Quantifying the heterogeneity is an important issue in meta-analysis, and among the existing measures, the $I^2$ statistic is the most commonly used measure in the literature. In this paper, we show that the $I^2$ statistic was, in fact, defined as problematic or even completely wrong from the very beginning. To confirm this statement, we first present a motivating example to show that the $I^2$ statistic is heavily dependent on the study sample sizes, and consequently it may yield contradictory results for the amount of heterogeneity. Moreover, by drawing a connection between ANOVA and meta-analysis, the $I^2$ statistic is shown to have, mistakenly, applied the sampling errors of the estimators rather than the variances of the study populations. Inspired by this, we introduce an Intrinsic measure for Quantifying the heterogeneity in meta-analysis, and meanwhile study its statistical properties to clarify why it is superior to the existing measures. We further propose an optimal estimator, referred to as the IQ statistic, for the new measure of heterogeneity that can be readily applied in meta-analysis. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that the IQ statistic provides a nearly unbiased estimate of the true heterogeneity and it is also independent of the study sample sizes.
Small study effects occur when smaller studies show different, often larger, treatment effects than large ones, which may threaten the validity of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The most well-known reasons for small study effects include publication bias, outcome reporting bias and clinical heterogeneity. Methods to account for small study effects in univariate meta-analysis have been extensively studied. However, detecting small study effects in a multivariate meta-analysis setting remains an untouched research area. One of the complications is that different types of selection processes can be involved in the reporting of multivariate outcomes. For example, some studies may be completely unpublished while others may selectively report multiple outcomes. In this paper, we propose a score test as an overall test of small study effects in multivariate meta-analysis. Two detailed case studies are given to demonstrate the advantage of the proposed test over various naive applications of univariate tests in practice. Through simulation studies, the proposed test is found to retain nominal Type I error with considerable power in moderate sample size settings. Finally, we also evaluate the concordance between the proposed test with the naive application of univariate tests by evaluating 44 systematic reviews with multiple outcomes from the Cochrane Database.
Correlated data are ubiquitous in todays data-driven society. A fundamental task in analyzing these data is to understand, characterize and utilize the correlations in them in order to conduct valid inference. Yet explicit regression analysis of correlations has been so far limited to longitudinal data, a special form of correlated data, while implicit analysis via mixed-effects models lacks generality as a full inferential tool. This paper proposes a novel regression approach for modelling the correlation structure, leveraging a new generalized z-transformation. This transformation maps correlation matrices that are constrained to be positive definite to vectors with un-restricted support, and is order-invariant. Building on these two properties, we develop a regression model to relate the transformed parameters to any covariates. We show that coupled with a mean and a variance regression model, the use of maximum likelihood leads to asymptotically normal parameter estimates, and crucially enables statistical inference for all the parameters. The performance of our framework is demonstrated in extensive simulation. More importantly, we illustrate the use of our model with the analysis of the classroom data, a highly unbalanced multilevel clustered data with within-class and within-school correlations, and the analysis of the malaria immune response data in Benin, a longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates in addition to time. Our analyses reveal new insights not previously known.
In a network meta-analysis, some of the collected studies may deviate markedly from the others, for example having very unusual effect sizes. These deviating studies can be regarded as outlying with respect to the rest of the network and can be influential on the pooled results. Thus, it could be inappropriate to synthesize those studies without further investigation. In this paper, we propose two Bayesian methods to detect outliers in a network meta-analysis via: (a) a mean-shifted outlier model and (b), posterior predictive p-values constructed from ad-hoc discrepancy measures. The former method uses Bayes factors to formally test each study against outliers while the latter provides a score of outlyingness for each study in the network, which allows to numerically quantify the uncertainty associated with being outlier. Furthermore, we present a simple method based on informative priors as part of the network meta-analysis model to down-weight the detected outliers. We conduct extensive simulations to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology while comparing it to some alternative, available outlier diagnostic tools. Two real networks of interventions are then used to demonstrate our methods in practice.
In many longitudinal studies, the covariate and response are often intermittently observed at irregular, mismatched and subject-specific times. How to deal with such data when covariate and response are observed asynchronously is an often raised problem. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees(BART) is a Bayesian non-Parametric approach which has been shown to be competitive with the best modern predictive methods such as random forest and boosted decision trees. The sum of trees structure combined with a Bayesian inferential framework provide a accurate and robust statistic method. BART variant soft Bayesian Additive Regression Trees(SBART) constructed using randomized decision trees was developed and substantial theoretical and practical benefits were shown. In this paper, we propose a weighted SBART model solution for asynchronous longitudinal data. In comparison to other methods, the current methods are valid under with little assumptions on the covariate process. Extensive simulation studies provide numerical support for this solution. And data from an HIV study is used to illustrate our methodology