The velocity and direction of the wind greatly affect marine navigation and the
movement of merchant ships in harbors, It also affects the rapid movement of pollutants
into the air from industrial cities to agricultural and residential areas.
The
importance of the research comes from forecasting monthly wind velocity in the
Tartous station and to achieve this goal the data of time series for the monthly wind
velocity at Tartous station in Tartous governorate The methodology of "Box – Jenkins"
been used in the study, this methodology relies on finding future forecasts from original
data series.
Also, the applications “MINITAB, EXCEL” have been used to obtain the results of the
study.
As a result, the study found that wind velocity value in the ' Tartous station' decreasing,
this decline amounted to 0.002 km/h per month during the monitoring period.
Also, the appropriate (SARIMA) model for the series was build after it passed the
various statistical tests are required, and founded that SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12 model is a
good representation of the data and the SARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 model is the right model
to forecast future monthly wind.
