Once upon a time, predictions for the accuracy of inference on gravitational-wave signals relied on computationally inexpensive but often inaccurate techniques. Recently, the approach has shifted to actual inference on noisy signals with complex stochastic Bayesian methods, at the expense of significant computational cost. Here, we argue that it is often possible to have the best of both worlds: a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior information and correctly marginalizes over uninteresting parameters, providing accurate posterior probability distribution functions, but carried out on a simple grid at a low computational cost, comparable to the inexpensive predictive techniques.
The second generation of gravitational-wave detectors is scheduled to start operations in 2015. Gravitational-wave signatures of compact binary coalescences could be used to accurately test the strong-field dynamical predictions of general relativity. Computationally expensive data analysis pipelines, including TIGER, have been developed to carry out such tests. As a means to cheaply assess whether a particular deviation from general relativity can be detected, Cornish et al. and Vallisneri recently proposed an approximate scheme to compute the Bayes factor between a general-relativity gravitational-wave model and a model representing a class of alternative theories of gravity parametrised by one additional parameter. This approximate scheme is based on only two easy-to-compute quantities: the signal-to-noise ratio of the signal and the fitting factor between the signal and the manifold of possible waveforms within general relativity. In this work, we compare the prediction from the approximate formula against an exact numerical calculation of the Bayes factor using the lalinference library. We find that, using frequency-domain waveforms, the approximate scheme predicts exact results with good accuracy, providing the correct scaling with the signal-to-noise ratio at a fitting factor value of 0.992 and the correct scaling with the fitting factor at a signal-to-noise ratio of 20, down to a fitting factor of $sim$ 0.9. We extend the framework for the approximate calculation of the Bayes factor which significantly increases its range of validity, at least to fitting factors of $sim$ 0.7 or higher.
We discuss two approaches to searches for gravitational-wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) counterparts of binary neutron star mergers. The first approach relies on triggering archival searches of GW detector data based on detections of EM transients. We introduce a quantitative approach to evaluate the improvement to GW detector reach due to the extra information gained from the EM transient and the increased confidence in the presence of a signal from a binary merger. We also advocate utilizing other transients in addition to short gamma ray bursts. The second approach involves following up GW candidates with targeted EM observations. We argue for the use of slower but optimal parameter-estimation techniques to localize the source on the sky, and for a more sophisticated use of astrophysical prior information, including galaxy catalogs, to find preferred followup locations.
Selection among alternative theoretical models given an observed data set is an important challenge in many areas of physics and astronomy. Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) is an extremely powerful technique for performing Bayesian model selection, but it suffers from a fundamental difficulty: it requires jumps between model parameter spaces, but cannot efficiently explore both parameter spaces at once. Thus, a naive jump between parameter spaces is unlikely to be accepted in the MCMC algorithm and convergence is correspondingly slow. Here we demonstrate an interpolation technique that uses samples from single-model MCMCs to propose inter-model jumps from an approximation to the single-model posterior of the target parameter space. The interpolation technique, based on a kD-tree data structure, is adaptive and efficient in modest dimensionality. We show that our technique leads to improved convergence over naive jumps in an RJMCMC, and compare it to other proposals in the literature to improve the convergence of RJMCMCs. We also demonstrate the use of the same interpolation technique as a way to construct efficient global proposal distributions for single-model MCMCs without prior knowledge of the structure of the posterior distribution, and discuss improvements that permit the method to be used in higher-dimensional spaces efficiently.
Identifying the properties of the first generation of seeds of massive black holes is key to understanding the merger history and growth of galaxies. Mergers between ~100 solar mass seed black holes generate gravitational waves in the 0.1-10Hz band that lies between the sensitivity bands of existing ground-based detectors and the planned space-based gravitational wave detector, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). However, there are proposals for more advanced detectors that will bridge this gap, including the third generation ground-based Einstein Telescope and the space-based detector DECIGO. In this paper we demonstrate that such future detectors should be able to detect gravitational waves produced by the coalescence of the first generation of light seed black-hole binaries and provide information on the evolution of structure in that era. These observations will be complementary to those that LISA will make of subsequent mergers between more massive black holes. We compute the sensitivity of various future detectors to seed black-hole mergers, and use this to explore the number and properties of the events that each detector might see in three years of observation. For this calculation, we make use of galaxy merger trees and two different seed black hole mass distributions in order to construct the astrophysical population of events. We also consider the accuracy with which networks of future ground-based detectors will be able to measure the parameters of seed black hole mergers, in particular the luminosity distance to the source. We show that distance precisions of ~30% are achievable, which should be sufficient for us to say with confidence that the sources are at high redshift.
During the fifth science run of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO), signals modelling the gravitational waves emitted by coalescing non-spinning compact-object binaries were injected into the LIGO data stream. We analysed the data segments into which such injections were made using a Bayesian approach, implemented as a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo technique in our code SPINspiral. This technique enables us to determine the physical parameters of such a binary inspiral, including masses and spin, following a possible detection trigger. For the first time, we publish the results of a realistic parameter-estimation analysis of waveforms embedded in real detector noise. We used both spinning and non-spinning waveform templates for the data analysis and demonstrate that the intrinsic source parameters can be estimated with an accuracy of better than 1-3% in the chirp mass and 0.02-0.05 (8-20%) in the symmetric mass ratio if non-spinning waveforms are used. We also find a bias between the injected and recovered parameters, and attribute it to the difference in the post-Newtonian orders of the waveforms used for injection and analysis.
Gravitational waves (GWs) from the inspiral of a neutron star (NS) or stellar-mass black hole (BH) into an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) with mass between ~50 and ~350 solar masses may be detectable by the planned advanced generation of ground-based GW interferometers. Such intermediate mass ratio inspirals (IMRIs) are most likely to be found in globular clusters. We analyze four possible IMRI formation mechanisms: (1) hardening of an NS-IMBH or BH-IMBH binary via three-body interactions, (2) hardening via Kozai resonance in a hierarchical triple system, (3) direct capture, and (4) inspiral of a compact object from a tidally captured main-sequence star; we also discuss tidal effects when the inspiraling object is an NS. For each mechanism we predict the typical eccentricities of the resulting IMRIs. We find that IMRIs will have largely circularized by the time they enter the sensitivity band of ground-based detectors. Hardening of a binary via three-body interactions, which is likely to be the dominant mechanism for IMRI formation, yields eccentricities under 10^-4 when the GW frequency reaches 10 Hz. Even among IMRIs formed via direct captures, which can have the highest eccentricities, around 90% will circularize to eccentricities under 0.1 before the GW frequency reaches 10 Hz. We estimate the rate of IMRI coalescences in globular clusters and the sensitivity of a network of three Advanced LIGO detectors to the resulting GWs. We show that this detector network may see up to tens of IMRIs per year, although rates of one to a few per year may be more plausible. We also estimate the loss in signal-to-noise ratio that will result from using circular IMRI templates for data analysis and find that, for the eccentricities we expect, this loss is negligible.
We present a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) technique to study the source parameters of gravitational-wave signals from the inspirals of stellar-mass compact binaries detected with ground-based gravitational-wave detectors such as LIGO and Virgo, for the case where spin is present in the more massive compact object in the binary. We discuss aspects of the MCMC algorithm that allow us to sample the parameter space in an efficient way. We show sample runs that illustrate the possibilities of our MCMC code and the difficulties that we encounter.
The planned Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to detect gravitational wave signals from ~100 extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) of stellar-mass compact objects into massive black holes. The long duration and large parameter space of EMRI signals makes data analysis for these signals a challenging problem. One approach to EMRI data analysis is to use time-frequency methods. This consists of two steps: (i) searching for tracks from EMRI sources in a time-frequency spectrogram, and (ii) extracting parameter estimates from the tracks. In this paper we discuss the results of applying these techniques to the latest round of the Mock LISA Data Challenge, Round 1B. This analysis included three new techniques not used in previous analyses: (i) a new Chirp-based Algorithm for Track Search for track detection; (ii) estimation of the inclination of the source to the line of sight; (iii) a Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo over the parameter space in order to find the best fit to the tracks.
We explore the properties of test-particle orbits in bumpy spacetimes - stationary, reflection-symmetric, asymptotically flat solutions of Einstein equations that have a non-Kerr (anomalous) higher-order multipole-moment structure but can be tuned arbitrarily close to the Kerr metric. Future detectors should observe gravitational waves generated during inspirals of compact objects into supermassive central bodies. If the central body deviates from the Kerr metric, this will manifest itself in the emitted waves. Here, we explore some of the features of orbits in non-Kerr spacetimes that might lead to observable signatures. As a basis for this analysis, we use a family of exact solutions proposed by Manko & Novikov which deviate from the Kerr metric in the quadrupole and higher moments, but we also compare our results to other work in the literature. We examine isolating integrals of the orbits and find that the majority of geodesic orbits have an approximate fourth constant of the motion (in addition to the energy, angular momentum and rest mass) and the resulting orbits are tri-periodic to high precision. We also find that this fourth integral can be lost for certain orbits in some oblately deformed Manko-Novikov spacetimes. However, compact objects will probably not end up on these chaotic orbits in nature. We compute the location of the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) and find that the behavior of orbtis near the ISCO can be qualitatively different depending on whether the ISCO is determined by the onset of an instability in the radial or vertical direction. Finally, we compute periapsis and orbital-plane precessions for nearly circular and nearly equatorial orbits in both the strong and weak field, and discuss weak-field precessions for eccentric equatorial orbits.
