ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

On default priors for robust Bayesian estimation with divergences

87   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Tomoyuki Nakagawa
 تاريخ النشر 2020
  مجال البحث الاحصاء الرياضي
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

This paper presents objective priors for robust Bayesian estimation against outliers based on divergences. The minimum $gamma$-divergence estimator is well-known to work well estimation against heavy contamination. The robust Bayesian methods by using quasi-posterior distributions based on divergences have been also proposed in recent years. In objective Bayesian framework, the selection of default prior distributions under such quasi-posterior distributions is an important problem. In this study, we provide some properties of reference and moment matching priors under the quasi-posterior distribution based on the $gamma$-divergence. In particular, we show that the proposed priors are approximately robust under the condition on the contamination distribution without assuming any conditions on the contamination ratio. Some simulation studies are also presented.



قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

In this paper, we consider Bayesian variable selection problem of linear regression model with global-local shrinkage priors on the regression coefficients. We propose a variable selection procedure that select a variable if the ratio of the posterio r mean to the ordinary least square estimate of the corresponding coefficient is greater than $1/2$. Under the assumption of orthogonal designs, we show that if the local parameters have polynomial-tailed priors, our proposed method enjoys the oracle property in the sense that it can achieve variable selection consistency and optimal estimation rate at the same time. However, if, instead, an exponential-tailed prior is used for the local parameters, the proposed method does not have the oracle property.
If we have an unbiased estimate of some parameter of interest, then its absolute value is positively biased for the absolute value of the parameter. This bias is large when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is small, and it becomes even larger when we condition on statistical significance; the winners curse. This is a frequentist motivation for regularization. To determine a suitable amount of shrinkage, we propose to estimate the distribution of the SNR from a large collection or corpus of similar studies and use this as a prior distribution. The wider the scope of the corpus, the less informative the prior, but a wider scope does not necessarily result in a more diffuse prior. We show that the estimation of the prior simplifies if we require that posterior inference is equivariant under linear transformations of the data. We demonstrate our approach with corpora of 86 replication studies from psychology and 178 phase 3 clinical trials. Our suggestion is not intended to be a replacement for a prior based on full information about a particular problem; rather, it represents a familywise choice that should yield better long-term properties than the current default uniform prior, which has led to systematic overestimates of effect sizes and a replication crisis when these inflated estimates have not shown up in later studies.
252 - Zichen Ma , Ernest Fokoue 2015
In this paper, we introduce a new methodology for Bayesian variable selection in linear regression that is independent of the traditional indicator method. A diagonal matrix $mathbf{G}$ is introduced to the prior of the coefficient vector $boldsymbol {beta}$, with each of the $g_j$s, bounded between $0$ and $1$, on the diagonal serves as a stabilizer of the corresponding $beta_j$. Mathematically, a promising variable has a $g_j$ value that is close to $0$, whereas the value of $g_j$ corresponding to an unpromising variable is close to $1$. This property is proven in this paper under orthogonality together with other asymptotic properties. Computationally, the sample path of each $g_j$ is obtained through Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling method. Also, in this paper we give two simulations to verify the capability of this methodology in variable selection.
62 - Masahiro Tanaka 2018
A local projection is a statistical framework that accounts for the relationship between an exogenous variable and an endogenous variable, measured at different time points. Local projections are often applied in impulse response analyses and direct forecasting. While local projections are becoming increasingly popular because of their robustness to misspecification and their flexibility, they are less statistically efficient than standard methods, such as vector autoregression. In this study, we seek to improve the statistical efficiency of local projections by developing a fully Bayesian approach that can be used to estimate local projections using roughness penalty priors. By incorporating such prior-induced smoothness, we can use information contained in successive observations to enhance the statistical efficiency of an inference. We apply the proposed approach to an analysis of monetary policy in the United States, showing that the roughness penalty priors successfully estimate the impulse response functions and improve the predictive accuracy of local projections.
An important task in building regression models is to decide which regressors should be included in the final model. In a Bayesian approach, variable selection can be performed using mixture priors with a spike and a slab component for the effects su bject to selection. As the spike is concentrated at zero, variable selection is based on the probability of assigning the corresponding regression effect to the slab component. These posterior inclusion probabilities can be determined by MCMC sampling. In this paper we compare the MCMC implementations for several spike and slab priors with regard to posterior inclusion probabilities and their sampling efficiency for simulated data. Further, we investigate posterior inclusion probabilities analytically for different slabs in two simple settings. Application of variable selection with spike and slab priors is illustrated on a data set of psychiatric patients where the goal is to identify covariates affecting metabolism.
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا