اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدImportance of Positive Feedbacks and Over-confidence in a Self-Fulfilling Ising Model of Financial Markets
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Didier Sornette
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Following a long tradition of physicists who have noticed that the Ising model provides a general background to build realistic models of social interactions, we study a model of financial price dynamics resulting from the collective aggregate decisions of agents. This model incorporates imitation, the impact of external news and private information. It has the structure of a dynamical Ising model in which agents have two opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients which evolve in time with a memory of how past news have explained realized market returns. We study t
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