ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
The covariance matrix $boldsymbol{Sigma}$ of non-linear clustering statistics that are measured in current and upcoming surveys is of fundamental interest for comparing cosmological theory and data and a crucial ingredient for the likelihood approximations underlying widely used parameter inference and forecasting methods. The extreme number of simulations needed to estimate $boldsymbol{Sigma}$ to sufficient accuracy poses a severe challenge. Approximating $boldsymbol{Sigma}$ using inexpensive but biased surrogates introduces model error with respect to full simulations, especially in the non-linear regime of structure growth. To address this problem we develop a matrix generalization of Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) to combine a small number of simulations with fast surrogates and obtain low-noise estimates of $boldsymbol{Sigma}$ that are unbiased by construction. Our numerical examples use CARPool to combine GADGET-III $N$-body simulations with fast surrogates computed using COmoving Lagrangian Acceleration (COLA). Even at the challenging redshift $z=0.5$, we find variance reductions of at least $mathcal{O}(10^1)$ and up to $mathcal{O}(10^4)$ for the elements of the matter power spectrum covariance matrix on scales $8.9times 10^{-3}<k_mathrm{max} <1.0$ $h {rm Mpc^{-1}}$. We demonstrate comparable performance for the covariance of the matter bispectrum, the matter correlation function and probability density function of the matter density field. We compare eigenvalues, likelihoods, and Fisher matrices computed using the CARPool covariance estimate with the standard sample covariance estimators and generally find considerable improvement except in cases where $Sigma$ is severely ill-conditioned.
We present a numerically cheap approximation to super-sample covariance (SSC) of large scale structure cosmological probes, first in the case of angular power spectra. It necessitates no new elements besides those used for the prediction of the consi
To exploit the power of next-generation large-scale structure surveys, ensembles of numerical simulations are necessary to give accurate theoretical predictions of the statistics of observables. High-fidelity simulations come at a towering computatio
We give an analytical interpretation of how subsample-based internal covariance estimators lead to biased estimates of the covariance, due to underestimating the super-sample covariance (SSC). This includes the jackknife and bootstrap methods as esti
Upcoming weak lensing surveys will probe large fractions of the sky with unprecedented accuracy. To infer cosmological constraints, a large ensemble of survey simulations are required to accurately model cosmological observables and their covariances
During the last few decades, online controlled experiments (also known as A/B tests) have been adopted as a golden standard for measuring business improvements in industry. In our company, there are more than a billion users participating in thousand