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تسجيل مستخدم جديدSocial stress drives the multi-wave dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks
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The dynamics of epidemics depend on how peoples behavior changes during an outbreak. The impact of this effect due to control interventions on the morbidity rate is obvious and supported by numerous studies based on SIR-type models. However, the existing models do not explain the difference in outbreak profiles in countries with different intrinsic socio-cultural features and are rather specific for describing the complex dynamics of an outbreak. A system of models of the COVID-19 pandemic is proposed, combining the dynamics of social stress described by the tools of sociophysics8 with classical epidemic models. Even the combination of a dynamic SIR model with the classic triad of stages of general adaptation syndrome, Alarm-Resistance-Exhaustion, makes it possible to describe the available statistics for various countries of the world with a high degree of accuracy. The conceptualization of social stress leads to the division of the vulnerable population into different groups according to behavior mode, which can be tracked in detail. The sets of kinetic constants corresponding to optimal fit of model to data clearly characterize the society ability to focus efforts on protection against pandemic and keep this concentration for a considerable time. Such characterization can further help in the development of management strategies specific to a particular society: country, region, or social group.
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