ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Testing for the infected cases is one of the most important mechanisms to control an epidemic. It enables to isolate the detected infected individuals, thereby limiting the disease transmission to the susceptible population. However, despite the significance of testing policies, the recent literature on the subject lacks a control-theoretic perspective. In this work, an epidemic model that incorporates the testing rate as a control input is presented. The proposed model differentiates the undetected infected from the detected infected cases, who are assumed to be removed from the disease spreading process in the population. First, the model is estimated and validated for COVID-19 data in France. Then, two testing policies are proposed, the so-called best-effort strategy for testing (BEST) and constant optimal strategy for testing (COST). The BEST policy is a suppression strategy that provides a lower bound on the testing rate such that the epidemic switches from a spreading to a non-spreading state. The COST policy is a mitigation strategy that provides an optimal value of testing rate that minimizes the peak value of the infected population when the total stockpile of tests is limited. Both testing policies are evaluated by predicting the number of active intensive care unit (ICU) cases and the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19.
In late December 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing a severe, potentially fatal respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and is causing outbreaks in multiple world countries, soon becoming a
In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with implementing non-phar
In this paper we propose a novel SEIR stochastic epidemic model. A distinguishing feature of this new model is that it allows us to consider a set up under general latency and infectious period distributions. To some extent, queuing systems with infi
The COVID-19 pandemic poses challenges for continuing economic activity while reducing health risks. While these challenges can be mitigated through testing, testing budget is often limited. Here we study how institutions, such as nursing homes, shou
We consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the recent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals can either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive care unit (ICU) c