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It is well understood that Bayesian decision theory and average case analysis are essentially identical. However, if one is interested in performing uncertainty quantification for a numerical task, it can be argued that standard approaches from the decision-theoretic framework are neither appropriate nor sufficient. Instead, we consider a particular optimality criterion from Bayesian experimental design and study its implied optimal information in the numerical context. This information is demonstrated to differ, in general, from the information that would be used in an average-case-optimal numerical method. The explicit connection to Bayesian experimental design suggests several distinct regimes in which optimal probabilistic numerical methods can be developed.
Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a method for solving numerical integration problems in a Bayesian manner, which allows users to quantify their uncertainty about the solution. The standard approach to BQ is based on a Gaussian process (GP) approximation o
Massive data bring the big challenges of memory and computation for analysis. These challenges can be tackled by taking subsamples from the full data as a surrogate. For functional data, it is common to collect multiple measurements over their domain
We propose a novel generalisation to the Student-t Probabilistic Principal Component methodology which: (1) accounts for an asymmetric distribution of the observation data; (2) is a framework for grouped and generalised multiple-degree-of-freedom str
Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. agricultural yield, annual mortality or gross do
Archetypal analysis is an unsupervised learning method for exploratory data analysis. One major challenge that limits the applicability of archetypal analysis in practice is the inherent computational complexity of the existing algorithms. In this pa