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تسجيل مستخدم جديدForecast of surface layer meteorological parameters at Cerro Paranal with a mesoscale atmospherical model
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This article aims at proving the feasibility of the forecast of all the most relevant classical atmospherical parameters for astronomical applications (wind speed and direction, temperature) above the ESO ground-base site of Cerro Paranal with a mesoscale atmospherical model called Meso-Nh. In a precedent paper we have preliminarily treated the model performances obtained in reconstructing some key atmospherical parameters in the surface layer 0-30~m studying the bias and the RMSE on a statistical sample of 20 nights. Results were very encouraging and it appeared therefore mandatory to confirm such a good result on a much richer statistical sample. In this paper, the study was extended to a total sample of 129 nights between 2007 and 2011 distributed in different parts of the solar year. This large sample made our analysis more robust and definitive in terms of the model performances and permitted us to confirm the excellent performances of the model. Besides, we present an independent analysis of the model performances using the method of the contingency tables. Such a method permitted us to provide complementary key informations with respect to the bias and the RMSE particularly useful for an operational implementation of a forecast system.
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Franck Lascaux
, Elena Masciadri
, Luca Fini (INAF / Osservatorion Astrofisico di Arcetri
2013
This article is the second of a series of articles aiming at proving the feasibility of the forecast of all the most relevant classical atmospherical parameters for astronomical applications (wind speed and direction, temperature, relative humidity)
and the optical turbulence (Cn2 and the derived astro-climatic parameters like seeing, isoplanatic angle, wavefront coherence time...). This study is done in the framework of the MOSE project, and focused above the two ESO ground-bases sites of Cerro Paranal and Cerro Armazones. In this paper we present the results related to the Meso-Nh model ability in reconstructing the surface layer atmospherical parameters (wind speed intensity, wind direction and absolute temperature, [0-30] m a.g.l.). The model reconstruction of all the atmospherical parameters in the surface layer is very satisfactory. For the temperature, at all levels, the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is inferior to 1{deg}C. For the wind speed, it is ~2 m/s, and for the wind direction, it is in the range [38-46{deg}], at all levels, that corresponds to a RMSE_relative in a range [21-26{deg}]. If a filter is applied for the wind direction (the winds inferior to 3 m/s are discarded from the computations), the wind direction RMSE is in the range [30-41{deg}], i.e. a RMSE_relative in the range [17-23{deg}]. The model operational forecast of the surface layer atmospherical parameters is suitable for different applications, among others: thermalization of the dome using the reconstructed temperature, hours in advance, of the beginning the night; knowing in advance the main direction which the strong winds will come from during the night could allow the astronomer to anticipate the occurrence of a good/bad seeing night, and plan the observations accordingly; preventing adaptive secondary mirrors shake generated by the wind speed.
In the context of the MOSE project, in this contribution we present a detailed analysis of the Meso-NH mesoscale model performances and their dependency on the model and orography horizontal resolutions in proximity of the ground. The investigated si
tes are Cerro Paranal (site of the ESO Very Large Telescope - VLT) and Cerro Armazones (site of the ESO European Extremely Large Telescope - E-ELT), in Chile. At both sites, data from a rich statistical sample of different nights are available - from AWS (Automated Weather Stations) and masts - giving access to wind speed, wind direction and temperature at different levels near the ground (from 2 m to 30 m above the ground). In this study we discuss the use of a very high horizontal resolution (dX=0.1 km) numerical configuration that overcomes some specific limitations put in evidence with a standard configuration with dX=0.5 km. In both sites results are very promising. The study is co-funded by ESO and INAF.
We present the overview of the MOSE project (MOdeling ESO Sites) aiming at proving the feasibility of the forecast of the classical atmospherical parameters (wind speed intensity and direction, temperature, relative humidity) and the optical turbulen
ce OT (CN2 profiles and the most relevant integrated astro-climatic parameters derived from the CN2: the seeing, the isoplanatic angle, the wavefront coherence time) above the two ESO ground-based sites of Cerro Paranal and Cerro Armazones. The final outcome of the study is to investigate the opportunity to implement an automatic system for the forecast of these parameters at these sites. In this paper we present results related to the Meso-Nh model ability in reconstructing the vertical stratification of the atmospherical parameters along the 20 km above the ground. The very satisfactory performances shown by the model in reconstructing most of these parameters (and in particular the wind speed) put this tool of investigation as the most suitable to be used in astronomical observatories to support AO facilities and to calculate the temporal evolution of the wind speed and the wavefront coherence time at whatever temporal sampling. The further great advantage of this solution is that such estimates can be available in advance (order of some hours) with respect to the time of interest
The Earths atmosphere affects ground-based astronomical observations. Scattering, absorption, and radiation processes deteriorate the signal-to-noise ratio of the data received. For scheduling astronomical observations it is, therefore, important to
accurately estimate the wavelength-dependent effect of the Earths atmosphere on the observed flux. In order to increase the accuracy of the exposure time calculator of the European Southern Observatorys (ESO) Very Large Telescope (VLT) at Cerro Paranal, an atmospheric model was developed as part of the Austrian ESO In-Kind contribution. It includes all relevant components, such as scattered moonlight, scattered starlight, zodiacal light, atmospheric thermal radiation and absorption, and non-thermal airglow emission. This paper focuses on atmospheric scattering processes that mostly affect the blue (< 0.55 mum) wavelength regime, and airglow emission lines and continuum that dominate the red (> 0.55 mum) wavelength regime. While the former is mainly investigated by means of radiative transfer models, the intensity and variability of the latter is studied with a sample of 1186 VLT FORS1 spectra. For a set of parameters such as the object altitude angle, Moon-object angular distance, ecliptic latitude, bimonthly period, and solar radio flux, our model predicts atmospheric radiation and transmission at a requested resolution. A comparison of our model with the FORS1 spectra and photometric data for the night-sky brightness from the literature, suggest a model accuracy of about 20%. This is a significant improvement with respect to existing predictive atmospheric models for astronomical exposure time calculators.
In addition to astro-meteorological parameters, such as seeing, coherence time and isoplanatic angle, the vertical profile of the Earths atmospheric turbulence strength and velocity is important for instrument design, performance validation and monit
oring, and observation scheduling and management. Here we compare these astro-meteorological parameters as well as the vertical profile itself from a forecast model based on a General Circulation Model from the European Centre for Median range Weather Forecasts and the stereo-SCIDAR, a high-sensitivity turbulence profiling instrument in regular operation at Paranal, Chile. The model is fast to process as no spatial nesting or data manipulation is performed. This speed enables the model to be reactive based on the most up to date forecasts. We find that the model is statistically consistent with measurements from stereo-SCIDAR. The correlation of the median turbulence profile from the model and the measurement is 0.98. We also find that the distributions of astro-meteorological parameters are consistent. We compare contemporaneous measurements and show that the free atmosphere seeing, isoplanatic angle and coherence time have correlation values of 0.64, 0.40 and 0.63 respectively. We show and compare the profile sequences from a large number of trial nights. We see that the model is able to forecast the evolution of dominating features. In addition to smart scheduling, ensuring that the most sensitive astronomical observations are scheduled for the optimum time, this model could enable remote site characterisation using a large archive of weather forecasts and could be used to optimise the performance of wide-field AO system.
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