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Reply to Lee et al. comment on Nature of the Epidemic Threshold for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Dynamics in Networks

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 نشر من قبل Marian Boguna
 تاريخ النشر 2014
  مجال البحث فيزياء
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A reply to the comment by Lee et al. [arXiv:1309.5367]

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Cator and Van Mieghem [Cator E, Van Mieghem P., Phys. Rev. E 89, 052802 (2014)] stated that the correlation of infection at the same time between any pair of nodes in a network is non-negative for the Markovian SIS and SIR epidemic models. The argume nts used to obtain this result rely strongly on the graphical construction of the stochastic process, as well as the FKG inequality. In this note we show that although the approach used by the authors applies to the SIS model, it cannot be used for the SIR model as stated in their work. In particular, we observe that monotonicity in the process is crucial for invoking the FKG inequality. Moreover, we provide an example of simple graph for which the nodal infection in the SIR Markovian model is negatively correlated.
Metapopulation epidemic models describe epidemic dynamics in networks of spatially distant patches connected with pathways for migration of individuals. In the present study, we deal with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) metapopulation model wh ere the epidemic process in each patch is represented by an SIR model and the mobility of individuals is assumed to be a homogeneous diffusion. Our study focuses on two types of patches including high-risk and low-risk ones, in order to evaluate intervention strategies for epidemic control. We theoretically analyze the intervention threshold, indicating the critical fraction of low-risk patches for preventing a global epidemic outbreak. We show that targeted intervention to high-degree patches is more effective for epidemic control than random intervention. The theoretical results are validated by Monte Carlo simulation for synthetic and realistic scale-free patch networks. Our approach is useful for exploring better local interventions aimed at containment of epidemics.
The Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model is a canonical model for emerging disease outbreaks. Such outbreaks are naturally modeled as taking place on networks. A theoretical challenge in network epidemiology is the dynamic correlations coming from that if one node is occupied, or infected (for disease spreading models), then its neighbors are likely to be occupied. By combining two theoretical approaches---the heterogeneous mean-field theory and the effective degree method---we are able to include these correlations in an analytical solution of the SIS model. We derive accurate expressions for the average prevalence (fraction of infected) and epidemic threshold. We also discuss how to generalize the approach to a larger class of stochastic population models.
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