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A simple method for adding uncertainty to neural network regression tasks via estimation of a general probability distribution is described. The methodology supports estimation of heteroscedastic, asymmetric uncertainties by a simple modification of the network output and loss function. Method performance is demonstrated with a simple one dimensional data set and then applied to a more complex regression task using synthetic climate data.
Neural networks have become increasingly prevalent within the geosciences, although a common limitation of their usage has been a lack of methods to interpret what the networks learn and how they make decisions. As such, neural networks have often be
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are capable of modeling the temporal dynamics of complex sequential information. However, the structures of existing RNN neurons mainly focus on controlling the contributions of current and historical information but
Over the last couple of years, machine learning parameterizations have emerged as a potential way to improve the representation of sub-grid processes in Earth System Models (ESMs). So far, all studies were based on the same three-step approach: first
Neural module networks (NMN) have achieved success in image-grounded tasks such as Visual Question Answering (VQA) on synthetic images. However, very limited work on NMN has been studied in the video-grounded language tasks. These tasks extend the co
Artificial neural-networks have the potential to emulate cloud processes with higher accuracy than the semi-empirical emulators currently used in climate models. However, neural-network models do not intrinsically conserve energy and mass, which is a