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تسجيل مستخدم جديدStatistical Inference for Local Granger Causality
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Granger causality has been employed to investigate causality relations between components of stationary multiple time series. We generalize this concept by developing statistical inference for local Granger causality for multivariate locally stationary processes. Our proposed local Granger causality approach captures time-evolving causality relationships in nonstationary processes. The proposed local Granger causality is well represented in the frequency domain and estimated based on the parametric time-varying spectral density matrix using the local Whittle likelihood. Under regularity conditions, we demonstrate that the estimators converge to multivariate normal in distribution. Additionally, the test statistic for the local Granger causality is shown to be asymptotically distributed as a quadratic form of a multivariate normal distribution. The finite sample performance is confirmed with several simulation studies for multivariate time-varying autoregressive models. For practical demonstration, the proposed local Granger causality method uncovered new functional connectivity relationships between channels in brain signals. Moreover, the method was able to identify structural changes in financial data.
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In the study of complex physical and biological systems represented by multivariate stochastic processes, an issue of great relevance is the description of the system dynamics spanning multiple temporal scales. While methods to assess the dynamic com
plexity of individual processes at different time scales are well-established, multiscale analysis of directed interactions has never been formalized theoretically, and empirical evaluations are complicated by practical issues such as filtering and downsampling. Here we extend the very popular measure of Granger causality (GC), a prominent tool for assessing directed lagged interactions between joint processes, to quantify information transfer across multiple time scales. We show that the multiscale processing of a vector autoregressive (AR) process introduces a moving average (MA) component, and describe how to represent the resulting ARMA process using state space (SS) models and to combine the SS model parameters for computing exact GC values at arbitrarily large time scales. We exploit the theoretical formulation to identify peculiar features of multiscale GC in basic AR processes, and demonstrate with numerical simulations the much larger estimation accuracy of the SS approach compared with pure AR modeling of filtered and downsampled data. The improved computational reliability is exploited to disclose meaningful multiscale patterns of information transfer between global temperature and carbon dioxide concentration time series, both in paleoclimate and in recent years.
Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. For Gaussian variables it is equivalent to transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between j
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This is a comment to the paper A study of problems encountered in Granger causality analysis from a neuroscience perspective. We agree that interpretation issues of Granger Causality in Neuroscience exist (partially due to the historical unfortunate
use of the name causality, as nicely described in previous literature). On the other hand we think that the paper uses a formulation of Granger causality which is outdated (albeit still used), and in doing so it dismisses the measure based on a suboptimal use of it. Furthermore, since data from simulated systems are used, the pitfalls that are found with the used formulation are intended to be general, and not limited to neuroscience. It would be a pity if this paper, even written in good faith, became a wildcard against all possible applications of Granger Causality, regardless of the hard work of colleagues aiming to seriously address the methodological and interpretation pitfalls. In order to provide a balanced view, we replicated their simulations used the updated State Space implementation, proposed already some years ago, in which the pitfalls are mitigated or directly solved.
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