اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدLowCon: A design-based subsampling approach in a misspecified linear modeL
54
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
We consider a measurement constrained supervised learning problem, that is, (1) full sample of the predictors are given; (2) the response observations are unavailable and expensive to measure. Thus, it is ideal to select a subsample of predictor observations, measure the corresponding responses, and then fit the supervised learning model on the subsample of the predictors and responses. However, model fitting is a trial and error process, and a postulated model for the data could be misspecified. Our empirical studies demonstrate that most of the existing subsampling methods have unsatisfactory performances when the models are misspecified. In this paper, we develop a novel subsampling method, called LowCon, which outperforms the competing methods when the working linear model is misspecified. Our method uses orthogonal Latin hypercube designs to achieve a robust estimation. We show that the proposed design-based estimator approximately minimizes the so-called worst-case bias with respect to many possible misspecification terms. Both the simulated and real-data analyses demonstrate the proposed estimator is more robust than several subsample least squares estimators obtained by state-of-the-art subsampling methods.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
When drawing causal inference from observational data, there is always concern about unmeasured confounding. One way to tackle this is to conduct a sensitivity analysis. One widely-used sensitivity analysis framework hypothesizes the existence of a s
calar unmeasured confounder U and asks how the causal conclusion would change were U measured and included in the primary analysis. Works along this line often make various parametric assumptions on U, for the sake of mathematical and computational simplicity. In this article, we substantively further this line of research by developing a valid sensitivity analysis that leaves the distribution of U unrestricted. Our semiparametric estimator has three desirable features compared to many existing methods in the literature. First, our method allows for a larger and more flexible family of models, and mitigates observable implications (Franks et al., 2019). Second, our methods work seamlessly with any primary analysis that models the outcome regression parametrically. Third, our method is easy to use and interpret. We construct both pointwise confidence intervals and confidence bands that are uniformly valid over a given sensitivity parameter space, thus formally accounting for unknown sensitivity parameters. We apply our proposed method on an influential yet controversial study of the causal relationship between war experiences and political activeness using observational data from Uganda.
We consider the problem of online learning in misspecified linear stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. Regret guarantees for state-of-the-art linear bandit algorithms such as Optimism in the Face of Uncertainty Linear bandit (OFUL) hold under the
assumption that the arms expected rewards are perfectly linear in their features. It is, however, of interest to investigate the impact of potential misspecification in linear bandit models, where the expected rewards are perturbed away from the linear subspace determined by the arms features. Although OFUL has recently been shown to be robust to relatively small deviations from linearity, we show that any linear bandit algorithm that enjoys optimal regret performance in the perfectly linear setting (e.g., OFUL) must suffer linear regret under a sparse additive perturbation of the linear model. In an attempt to overcome this negative result, we define a natural class of bandit models characterized by a non-sparse deviation from linearity. We argue that the OFUL algorithm can fail to achieve sublinear regret even under models that have non-sparse deviation.We finally develop a novel bandit algorithm, comprising a hypothesis test for linearity followed by a decision to use either the OFUL or Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm. For perfectly linear bandit models, the algorithm provably exhibits OFULs favorable regret performance, while for misspecified models satisfying the non-sparse deviation property, the algorithm avoids the linear regret phenomenon and falls back on UCBs sublinear regret scaling. Numerical experiments on synthetic data, and on recommendation data from the public Yahoo! Learning to Rank Challenge dataset, empirically support our findings.
Partially linear additive models generalize the linear models since they model the relation between a response variable and covariates by assuming that some covariates are supposed to have a linear relation with the response but each of the others en
ter with unknown univariate smooth functions. The harmful effect of outliers either in the residuals or in the covariates involved in the linear component has been described in the situation of partially linear models, that is, when only one nonparametric component is involved in the model. When dealing with additive components, the problem of providing reliable estimators when atypical data arise, is of practical importance motivating the need of robust procedures. Hence, we propose a family of robust estimators for partially linear additive models by combining $B-$splines with robust linear regression estimators. We obtain consistency results, rates of convergence and asymptotic normality for the linear components, under mild assumptions. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to compare the performance of the robust proposal with its classical counterpart under different models and contamination schemes. The numerical experiments show the advantage of the proposed methodology for finite samples. We also illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach on a real data set.
Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes graphical models provide an extension of Bayes linear methods so that full conditional updates may be combined with Bayes linear belief adjustment. In this paper we investigate the application of this ap
proach to a more complicated problem: namely survival analysis with time-dependent covariate effects. We use a piecewise-constant hazard function with a prior in which covariate effects are correlated over time. The need for computationally intensive methods is avoided and the relatively simple structure facilitates interpretation. Our approach eliminates the problem of non-commutativity which was observed in earlier work by Gamerman. We apply the technique to data on survival times for leukemia patients.
Suppose an online platform wants to compare a treatment and control policy, e.g., two different matching algorithms in a ridesharing system, or two different inventory management algorithms in an online retail site. Standard randomized controlled tri
als are typically not feasible, since the goal is to estimate policy performance on the entire system. Instead, the typical current practice involves dynamically alternating between the two policies for fixed lengths of time, and comparing the average performance of each over the intervals in which they were run as an estimate of the treatment effect. However, this approach suffers from *temporal interference*: one algorithm alters the state of the system as seen by the second algorithm, biasing estimates of the treatment effect. Further, the simple non-adaptive nature of such designs implies they are not sample efficient. We develop a benchmark theoretical model in which to study optimal experimental design for this setting. We view testing the two policies as the problem of estimating the steady state difference in reward between two unknown Markov chains (i.e., policies). We assume estimation of the steady state reward for each chain proceeds via nonparametric maximum likelihood, and search for consistent (i.e., asymptotically unbiased) experimental designs that are efficient (i.e., asymptotically minimum variance). Characterizing such designs is equivalent to a Markov decision problem with a minimum variance objective; such problems generally do not admit tractable solutions. Remarkably, in our setting, using a novel application of classical martingale analysis of Markov chains via Poissons equation, we characterize efficient designs via a succinct convex optimization problem. We use this characterization to propose a consistent, efficient online experimental design that adaptively samples the two Markov chains.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
