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تسجيل مستخدم جديدThe Importance of Priors on LIGO-Virgo Parameter Estimation: the Case of Primordial Black Holes
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The black holes detected by current and future interferometers can have diverse origins. Their expected mass and spin distributions depend on the specifics of the formation mechanisms. When a physically motivated prior distribution is used in a Bayesian inference, the parameters estimated from the gravitational-wave data can change significantly, potentially affecting the physical interpretation of certain gravitational-wave events and their implications on theoretical models. As a case study we analyze primordial black holes, which might be formed in the early universe and could comprise at least a fraction of the dark matter. If accretion is not efficient during their cosmic history, primordial black holes are expected to be almost non-spinning. If accretion is efficient, massive binaries tend to be symmetrical and highly spinning. We show that incorporating these priors can significantly change the inferred mass ratio and effective spin of some binary black hole events, especially those identified as high-mass, asymmetrical, or spinning by a standard analysis using agnostic priors. For several events, the Bayes factors are only mildly affected by the new priors, implying that it is hard to distinguish whether merger events detected so far are of primordial or astrophysical origin. In particular, if binaries identified by LIGO/Virgo as strongly asymmetrical (including GW190412) are of primordial origin, their mass ratio inferred from the data can be closer to unity. For GW190412, the latter property is strongly affected by the inclusion of higher harmonics in the waveform model.
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The LIGO and Virgo Interferometers have so far provided 11 gravitational-wave (GW) observations of black-hole binaries. Similar detections are bound to become very frequent in the near future. With the current and upcoming wealth of data, it is possi
ble to confront specific formation models with observations. We investigate here whether current data are compatible with the hypothesis that LIGO/Virgo black holes are of primordial origin. We compute in detail the mass and spin distributions of primordial black holes (PBHs), their merger rates, the stochastic background of unresolved coalescences, and confront them with current data from the first two observational runs, also including the recently discovered GW190412. We compute the best-fit values for the parameters of the PBH mass distribution at formation that are compatible with current GW data. In all cases, the maximum fraction of PBHs in dark matter is constrained by these observations to be $f_{text{PBH}}approx {rm few}times 10^{-3}$. We discuss the predictions of the PBH scenario that can be directly tested as new data become available. In the most likely formation scenarios where PBHs are born with negligible spin, the fact that at least one of the components of GW190412 is moderately spinning is incompatible with a primordial origin for this event, unless accretion or hierarchical mergers are significant. In the absence of accretion, current non-GW constraints already exclude that LIGO/Virgo events are all of primordial origin, whereas in the presence of accretion the GW bounds on the PBH abundance are the most stringent ones in the relevant mass range. A strong phase of accretion during the cosmic history would favour mass ratios close to unity, and a redshift-dependent correlation between high masses, high spins and nearly-equal mass binaries, with the secondary component spinning faster than the primary.
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