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We estimate the merger timescale of spectroscopically-selected, subparsec supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidates by comparing their expected contribution to the gravitational wave background (GWB) with the sensitivity of current pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments and in particular, with the latest upper limit placed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). We find that the average timescale to coalescence of such SMBHBs is $langle t_{rm evol} rangle > 6times 10^4,$yr, assuming that their orbital evolution in the PTA frequency band is driven by emission of gravitational waves. If some fraction of SMBHBs do not reside in spectroscopically detected active galaxies, and their incidence in active and inactive galaxies is similar, then the merger timescale could be $sim 10$ times longer, $langle t_{rm evol} rangle > 6times 10^5,$yr. These limits are consistent with the range of timescales predicted by theoretical models and imply that all the SMBHB candidates in our spectroscopic sample could be binaries without violating the observational constraints on the GWB. This result illustrates the power of the multi-messenger approach, facilitated by the PTAs, in providing an independent statistical test of the nature of SMBHB candidates discovered in electromagnetic searches.
The advent of time domain astronomy is revolutionizing our understanding of the Universe. Programs such as the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) or the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) surveyed millions of objects for several years, allowing
In this paper we continue the first ever study of magnetized mini-disks coupled to circumbinary accretion in a supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) approaching merger reported in Bowen et al. 2018. We extend this simulation from 3 to 12 binary orbi
We introduce a technique for gravitational-wave analysis, where Gaussian process regression is used to emulate the strain spectrum of a stochastic background using population-synthesis simulations. This leads to direct Bayesian inference on astrophys
We present the first fully relativistic prediction of the electromagnetic emission from the surrounding gas of a supermassive binary black hole system approaching merger. Using a ray-tracing code to post-process data from a general relativistic 3-d M
It is widely accepted that dark matter contributes about a quarter of the critical mass-energy density in our Universe. The nature of dark matter is currently unknown, with the mass of possible constituents spanning nearly one hundred orders of magni