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We show that precise knowledge of epidemic transmission parameters is not required to build an informative model of the spread of disease. We propose a detailed model of the topology of the contact network under various external control regimes and demonstrate that this is sufficient to capture the salient dynamical characteristics and to inform decisions. Contact between individuals in the community is characterised by a contact graph, the structure of that contact graph is selected to mimic community control measures. Our model of city-level transmission of an infectious agent (SEIR model) characterises spread via a (a) scale-free contact network (no control); (b) a random graph (elimination of mass gatherings); and (c) small world lattice (partial to full lockdown -- social distancing). This model exhibits good qualitative agreement between simulation and data from the 2020 pandemic spread of coronavirus. Estimates of the relevant rate parameters of the SEIR model are obtained and we demonstrate the robustness of our model predictions under uncertainty of those estimates. The social context and utility of this work is identified, contributing to a highly effective pandemic response in Western Australia.
In this research, we study the propagation patterns of epidemic diseases such as the COVID-19 coronavirus, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The study is based on an extensions of the well-known susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) family of
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population, can be solv
In late December 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing a severe, potentially fatal respiratory syndrome (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and is causing outbreaks in multiple world countries, soon becoming a
The nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020, aimed at suppressing the spread of the COVID-19 disease, was extended until 31 May 2020 in three subsequent orders by the Government of India. The extended lockdown has had significant social and econo
There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoi