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تسجيل مستخدم جديدTorsional Oscillations in Dynamo Models with Fluctuations and Potential for Helioseismic Predictions of the Solar Cycles
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Using a nonlinear mean-field solar dynamo model, we study relationships between the amplitude of the `extended mode of migrating zonal flows (`torsional oscillations) and magnetic cycles, and investigate whether properties the torsional oscillations in subsurface layers and in the deep convection zone can provide information about the future solar cycles. We consider two types of dynamo models: models with regular variations of the alpha-effect, and models with stochastic fluctuations, simulating `long- and short-memory types of magnetic activity variations. It is found that torsional oscillation parameters, such the zonal acceleration, show a considerable correlation with the magnitude of the subsequent cycles with a time lag of 11-20 yr. The sign of the correlation and the time-lag parameters can depend on the depth and latitude of the torsional oscillations as well as on the properties of long-term (`centennial) variations of the dynamo cycles. The strongest correlations are found for the zonal acceleration at high latitudes at the base of the convection zone. The model results demonstrate that helioseismic observations of the torsional oscillations can be useful for advanced prediction of the solar cycles, one-two sunspot cycles ahead.
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