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The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures through large-scale social distancing measures appears to be the most effective means of mitigation. Here we use an age-structured SIR model with social contact matrices obtained from surveys and Bayesian imputation to study the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in India. The basic reproductive ratio R0 and its time-dependent generalization are computed based on case data, age distribution and social contact structure. The impact of social distancing measures - workplace non-attendance, school closure, lockdown - and their efficacy with durations are then investigated. A three-week lockdown is found insufficient to prevent a resurgence and, instead, protocols of sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation are suggested. Forecasts are provided for the reduction in age-structured morbidity and mortality as a result of these measures. Our study underlines the importance of age and social contact structures in assessing the country-specific impact of mitigatory social distancing.
A novel approach of adapting social distancing consideration into a SEIR model is presented, where susceptible, exposed and unidentified compartments are collated under the umbrella of the social-distanced compartment. Another key characteristic of t
Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Usi
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases tha
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population, can be solv
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly contagious respiratory disease that was first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and has since spread around the globe, claiming more than 69,000 lives by the time this protocol is written.