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We analyse the compiled set of precursory data that were reported to be available in real time before the Ms 7.5 Haicheng earthquake in Feb. 1975 and the Ms 7.6-7.8 Tangshan earthquake in July 1976. We propose a robust and simple coarse-graining method consisting in aggregating and counting how all the anomalies together (geodesy, levelling, geomagnetism, soil resistivity, Earth currents, gravity, Earth stress, well water radon, well water level) develop as a function of time. We demonstrate a strong evidence for the existence of an acceleration of the number of anomalies leading up to the major Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes. In particular for the Tangshan earthquake, the frequency of occurrence of anomalies is found to be well described by the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model, previously proposed for the prediction of engineering failures and later adapted to the prediction of financial crashes. Based on a mock real-time prediction experiment, and simulation study, we show the potential for an early warning system with lead-time of a few days, based on this methodology of monitoring accelerated rates of anomalies.
We report on an extensive characterization of the cracking noise produced by charcoal samples when dampened with ethanol. We argue that the evaporation of ethanol causes transient and irregularly distributed internal stresses that promote the fragmen
Earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, but algorithms exist for intermediate-term middle range prediction of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold, based on seismicity patterns. Few years ago, a first attempt was made in the framework o
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered earthquakes. In n
Low-frequency earthquakes are a particular class of slow earthquakes that provide a unique source of information on the mechanical properties of a subduction zone during the preparation of large earthquakes. Despite increasing detection of these even
By using the M>=5 global earthquake data for Jan. 1950 to Dec. 2015, we performed statistical analyses for the parameters magnitude, time, and depth on a yearly scale. The magnitude spectrum, which is the earthquake number accumulated at different ma