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We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use it to study the problem of risk model homogeneity. The model simulates the balance sheets of insurance firms, who collect premiums from clients in return for ensuring them against intermittent, heavy-tailed risks. Firms manage their capital and pay dividends to their investors, and use either reinsurance contracts or cat bonds to hedge their tail risk. The model generates plausible time series of profits and losses and recovers stylized facts, such as the insurance cycle and the emergence of asymmetric, long tailed firm size distributions. We use the model to investigate the problem of risk model homogeneity. Under Solvency II, insurance companies are required to use only certified risk models. This has led to a situation in which only a few firms provide risk models, creating a systemic fragility to the errors in these models. We demonstrate that using too few models increases the risk of nonpayment and default while lowering profits for the industry as a whole. The presence of the reinsurance industry ameliorates the problem but does not remove it. Our results suggest that it would be valuable for regulators to incentivize model diversity. The framework we develop here provides a first step toward a simulation model of the insurance industry for testing policies and strategies for better capital management.
We suggest use continuous numerical risk grades [0,1] of R for a single risk or the unit cube in Rn for n risks as the economic domain. We consider risk ratings of economic agents as their coordinates in the economic domain. Economic activity of agen
This paper proposes a public-private insurance scheme for earthquakes and floods in Italy in which property-owners, the insurer and the government co-operate in risk financing. Our model departs from the existing literature by describing a public-pri
The industrial life cycle theory has proved to be helpful for describing the evolution of industries from birth to maturity. This paper is to highlight the historical evolution stage of Atlantic Citys gambling industry in a structural framework cover
Pension reform is a crucial societal problem in many countries, and traditional pension schemes, such as Pay-As-You-Go and Defined-Benefit schemes, are being replaced by more sustainable ones. One challenge for a public pension system is the manageme
The authors provide a comprehensive overview of flexibility characterization along the dimensions of time, spatiality, resource, and risk in power systems. These dimensions are discussed in relation to flexibility assets, products, and services, as w