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تسجيل مستخدم جديدTracking and Validating ICMEs Propagating Toward Mars Using STEREO Heliospheric Imagers Combined With Forbush Decreases Detected by MSL/RAD
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The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) missions Curiosity rover has been measuring galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as well as solar energetic particles (SEP) on the surface of Mars for more than 6 years since its landing in August 2012. The observations include a large number of Forbush decreases (FD) caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and/or their associated shocks shielding away part of the GCR particles with their turbulent and enhanced magnetic fields while passing Mars. This study combines MSL/RAD FD measurements and remote tracking of ICMEs using the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) Heliospheric Imager (HI) telescopes in a statistical study for the first time. The large data set collected by HI makes it possible to analyze 149 ICMEs propagating toward MSL both during its 8-month cruise phase and after its landing on Mars. We link 45 of the events observed at STEREO-HI to their corresponding FDs at MSL/RAD and study the accuracy of the ICME arrival time at Mars predicted from HI data using different methods. The mean differences between the predicted arrival times and those observed using FDs range from -11 to 5 hr for the different methods, with standard deviations between 17 and 20 hr. These values for predictions at Mars are very similar compared to other locations closer to the Sun and also comparable to the precision of some other modeling approaches.
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The propagation of 15 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from Earths orbit (1 AU) to Mars (~ 1.5 AU) has been studied with their propagation speed estimated from both measurements and simulations. The enhancement of magnetic fields related
to ICMEs and their shock fronts cause the so-called Forbush decrease, which can be de- tected as a reduction of galactic cosmic rays measured on-ground. We have used galactic cosmic ray (GCR) data from in-situ measurements at Earth, from both STEREO A and B as well as GCR measurements by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) on the surface of Mars. A set of ICME events has been selected during the periods when Earth (or STEREO A or B) and Mars locations were nearly aligned on the same side of the Sun in the ecliptic plane (so-called opposition phase). Such lineups allow us to estimate the ICMEs transit times between 1 and 1.5 AU by estimating the delay time of the corresponding Forbush decreases measured at each location. We investigate the evolution of their propagation speeds before and after passing Earths orbit and find that the deceleration of ICMEs due to their interaction with the ambient solar wind may continue beyond 1 AU. We also find a substantial variance of the speed evolution among different events revealing the dynamic and diverse nature of eruptive solar events. Furthermore, the results are compared to simulation data obtained from two CME propagation models, namely the Drag-Based Model and ENLIL plus cone model.
Forbush decreases (FDs), which are short-term drops in the flux of galactic cosmic rays, are caused by the shielding from strong and/or turbulent magnetic structures in the solar wind, especially interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and thei
r associated shocks, as well as corotating interaction regions. Such events can be observed at Earth, for example, using neutron monitors, and also at many other locations in the solar system, such as on the surface of Mars with the Radiation Assessment Detector instrument onboard Mars Science Laboratory. They are often used as a proxy for detecting the arrival of ICMEs or corotating interaction regions, especially when sufficient in situ solar wind measurements are not available. We compare the properties of FDs observed at Earth and Mars, focusing on events produced by ICMEs. We find that FDs at both locations show a correlation between their total amplitude and the maximum hourly decrease, but with different proportionality factors. We explain this difference using theoretical modeling approaches and suggest that it is related to the size increase of ICMEs, and in particular their sheath regions, en route from Earth to Mars. From the FD data, we can derive the sheath broadening factor to be between about 1.5 and 1.9, agreeing with our theoretical considerations. This factor is also in line with previous measurements of the sheath evolution closer to the Sun.
Non-recurrent short term variations of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) flux above 70 MeV n$^{-1}$ were observed between 2016 February 18 and 2017 July 3 aboard the European Space Agency LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission orbiting around the Lagrange point L
1 at 1.5$times$10$^6$ km from Earth. The energy dependence of three Forbush decreases (FDs) is studied and reported here. A comparison of these observations with others carried out in space down to the energy of a few tens of MeV n$^{-1}$ shows that the same GCR flux parameterization applies to events of different intensity during the main phase. FD observations in L1 with LPF and geomagnetic storm occurrence is also presented. Finally, the characteristics of GCR flux non-recurrent variations (peaks and depressions) of duration $<$ 2 days and their association with interplanetary structures are investigated. It is found that, most likely, plasma compression regions between subsequent corotating high-speed streams cause peaks, while heliospheric current sheet crossing cause the majority of the depressions.
The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind interacts with
the interplanetary CME (ICME) resulting in constant acceleration or deceleration. The upgraded version of the model (EAMv3), presented here, incorporates two basic improvements: (a) a new technique for the calculation of the acceleration (or deceleration) of the ICME from the Sun to 1 AU and (b) a correction for the CME plane-of-sky speed. A validation of the upgraded EAM model is performed via comparisons to predictions from the ensemble version of the Drag-Based model (DBEM) and the WSA-ENLIL+Cone ensemble model. A common sample of 16 CMEs/ICMEs, in 2013-2014, is used for the comparison. Basic performance metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of ToA are presented. MAE for EAM model was 8.7$pm$1.6 hours while for DBEM and ENLIL was 14.3$pm$2.2 and 12.8$pm$1.7 hours, respectively. ME for EAM was -1.4$pm$2.7 hours in contrast with -9.7$pm$3.4 and -6.1$pm$3.3 hours from DBEM and ENLIL. We also study the hypothesis of stronger deceleration in the interplanetary (IP) space utilizing the EAMv3 and DBEM models. In particularly, the DBEM model perform better when a greater value of drag parameter, of order of a factor of 3, is used in contrast to previous studies. EAMv3 model shows a deceleration of ICMEs at greater distances, with a mean value of 0.72 AU.
We seek to estimate the average level of MHD turbulence near coronal mass ejection (CME) fronts as they propagate from the Sun to the Earth. We examine the cosmic ray data from the GRAPES-3 tracking muon telescope at Ooty, together with the data from
other sources for three well observed Forbush decrease events. Each of these events are associated with frontside halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and near-Earth magnetic clouds. In each case, we estimate the magnitude of the Forbush decrease using a simple model for the diffusion of high energy protons through the largely closed field lines enclosing the CME as it expands and propagates from the Sun to the Earth. We use estimates of the cross-field diffusion coefficient $D_{perp}$ derived from published results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of cosmic rays propagating through turbulent magnetic fields. Our method helps constrain the ratio of energy density in the turbulent magnetic fields to that in the mean magnetic fields near the CME fronts. This ratio is found to be $sim$ 2% for the 11 April 2001 Forbush decrease event, $sim$ 6% for the 20 November 2003 Forbush decrease event and $sim$ 249% for the much more energetic event of 29 October 2003.
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