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تسجيل مستخدم جديدThe Scientific Context of WFIRST Microlensing in the 2020s
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[abridged] WFIRST is uniquely capable of finding planets with masses as small as Mars at separations comparable to Jupiter, i.e., beyond the current ice lines of their stars. These planets fall between the close-in planets found by Kepler and the wide separation gas giants seen by direct imaging and ice giants inferred from ALMA observations. Furthermore, the smallest planets WFIRST can detect are smaller than the planets probed by RV and Gaia at comparable separations. Interpreting planet populations to infer the underlying formation and evolutionary processes requires combining results from multiple detection methods to measure the full variation of planets as a function of planet size, orbital separation, and host star mass. Microlensing is the only way to find planets from 0.5 to 5M_E at 1 to 5au. The case for a microlensing survey from space has not changed in the past 20 yrs: space allows wide-field diffraction-limited observations that resolve main-sequence stars in the bulge, which allows the detection and characterization of the smallest signals including those from planets with masses at least as small as Mars. What has changed is that ground-based (GB) microlensing is reaching its limits, underscoring the scientific necessity for a space-based survey. GB microlensing has found a break in the mass-ratio distribution at about a Neptune, implying that these are the most common microlensing planet and that planets smaller than this are rare. However, GB microlensing reaches its detection limits only slightly below the observed break. WFIRST will measure the shape of the mass-ratio function below the break by finding numerous smaller planets: 500 Neptunes, 600 gas giants, 200 Earths, and planets as small as 0.1M_E. Because it will also measure host masses and distances, WFIRST will also track the behavior of the planet distribution as a function of separation and host star mass.
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The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) was the top ranked large space mission in the 2010 New Worlds, New Horizons decadal survey, and it was formed by merging the science programs of 3 different mission concepts, including the Microlensin
g Planet Finder (MPF) concept (Bennett etal 2010). The WFIRST science program (Spergel etal 2015) consists of a general observer program, a wavefront controlled technology program, and two targeted science programs: a program to study dark energy, and a statistical census of exoplanets with a microlensing survey, which uses nearly one quarter of WFIRSTs observing time in the current design reference mission. The New Worlds, New Horizons (decadal survey) midterm assessment summarizes the science case for the WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey with this statement: WFIRSTs microlensing census of planets beyond 1 AU will perfectly complement Keplers census of compact systems, and WFIRST will also be able to detect free-floating planets unbound from their parent starsrlap.
Microlensing can access planet populations that no other method can probe: cold wide-orbit planets beyond the snow line, planets in both the Galactic bulge and disk, and free floating planets (FFPs). The demographics of each population will provide u
nique constraints on planet formation. Over the past 5 years, U.S. microlensing campaigns with Spitzer and UKIRT have provided a powerful complement to international ground-based microlensing surveys, with major breakthroughs in parallax measurements and probing new regions of the Galaxy. The scientific vitality of these projects has also promoted the development of the U.S. microlensing community. In the 2020s, the U.S. can continue to play a major role in ground-based microlensing by leveraging U.S. assets to complement ongoing ground-based international surveys. LSST and UKIRT microlensing surveys would probe vast regions of the Galaxy, where planets form under drastically different conditions. Moreover, while ground-based surveys will measure the planet mass-ratio function beyond the snow line, adaptive optics (AO) observations with ELTs would turn all of these mass ratios into masses and also distinguish between very wide-orbit planets and genuine FFPs. To the extent possible, cooperation of U.S. scientists with international surveys should also be encouraged and supported.
WFIRST is NASAs first flagship mission with pre-defined core science programs to study dark energy and perform a statistical census of wide orbit exoplanets with a gravitational microlensing survey. Together, these programs are expected to use more t
han half of the prime mission observing time. Previously, only smaller, PI-led missions have had core programs that used such a large fraction of the observing time, and in many cases, the data from these PI-led missions was reserved for the PIs science team for a proprietary period that allowed the PIs team to make most of the major discoveries from the data. Such a procedure is not appropriate for a flagship mission, which should provide science opportunities to the entire astronomy community. For this reason, there will be no proprietary period for WFIRST data, but we argue that a larger effort to make WFIRST science accessible to the astronomy community is needed. We propose a plan to enhance community involvement in the WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey in two different ways. First, we propose a set of high level data products that will enable astronomers without detailed microlensing expertise access to the statistical implications of the WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey data. And second, we propose the formation of a WFIRST Exoplanet Microlensing Community Science Team that will open up participation in the development of the WFIRST exoplanet microlensing survey to the general astronomy community in collaboration for the NASA selected science team, which will have the responsibility to provide most of the high level data products. This community science team will be open to volunteers, but members should also have the opportunity to apply for funding.
The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) will monitor $sim 2$ deg$^2$ toward the Galactic bulge in a wide ($sim 1-2~mu$m) W149 filter at 15-minute cadence with exposure times of $sim$50s for 6 seasons of 72 days each, for a total $sim$41,000
exposures taken over $sim$432 days, spread over the 5-year prime mission. This will be one of the deepest exposures of the sky ever taken, reaching a photon-noise photometric precision of 0.01 mag per exposure and collecting a total of $sim 10^9$ photons over the course of the survey for a W149$_{rm AB}sim 21$ star. Of order $4 times 10^7$ stars will be monitored with W149$_{rm AB}$<21, and 10$^8$ stars with W145$_{rm AB}$<23. The WFIRST microlensing survey will detect $sim$54,000 microlensing events, of which roughly 1% ($sim$500) will be due to isolated black holes, and $sim$3% ($sim$1600) will be due to isolated neutron stars. It will be sensitive to (effectively) isolated compact objects with masses as low as the mass of Pluto, thereby enabling a measurement of the compact object mass function over 10 orders of magnitude. Assuming photon-noise limited precision, it will detect $sim 10^5$ transiting planets with sizes as small as $sim 2~R_oplus$, perform asteroseismology of $sim 10^6$ giant stars, measure the proper motions to $sim 0.3%$ and parallaxes to $sim 10%$ for the $sim 6 times 10^6$ disk and bulge stars in the survey area, and directly detect $sim 5 times 10^3$ Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with diameters down to $sim 10$ km, as well as detect $sim 10^3$ occulations of stars by TNOs during the survey. All of this science will completely serendipitous, i.e., it will not require modifications of the WFIRST optimal microlensing survey design. Allowing for some minor deviation from the optimal design, such as monitoring the Galactic center, would enable an even broader range of transformational science.
We present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-1670, detected in a high-extinction field, very close to the Galactic plane. Due to the dust extinction along the line of sight, this event was too faint to be detected before it reached
the peak of magnification. The microlensing light-curve models indicate a high-magnification event with a maximum of $A_mathrm{max}gtrsim200$, very sensitive to planetary deviations. An anomaly in the light curve has been densely observed by the microlensing surveys MOA, KMTNet, and OGLE. From the light-curve modeling, we find a planetary anomaly characterized by a planet-to-host mass ratio, $q=left(1.00^{+0.18}_{-0.16}right)times 10^{-4}$, at the peak recently identified in the mass-ratio function of microlensing planets. Thus, this event is interesting to include in future statistical studies about planet demography. We have explored the possible degeneracies and find two competing planetary models resulting from the $sleftrightarrow1/s$ degeneracy. However, because the projected separation is very close to $s=1$, the physical implications for the planet for the two solutions are quite similar, except for the value of $s$. By combining the light-curve parameters with a Galactic model, we have estimated the planet mass $M_2=17.9^{+9.6}_{-8.8},mathrm{M}_oplus$ and the lens distance $D_mathrm{L}=6.7^{+1.0}_{-1.3},mathrm{kpc}$, corresponding to a Neptune-mass planet close to the Galactic bulge. Such events with a low absolute latitude ($|b|approx 1.1,mathrm{deg}$) are subject to both high extinction and more uncertain source distances, two factors that may affect the mass measurements in the provisional Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope fields. More events are needed to investigate the potential trade-off between the higher lensing rate and the difficulty in measuring masses in these low-latitude fields.
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