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We validate the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for precipitable water vapour (PWV) forecasting as a fully operational tool for optimizing astronomical infrared (IR) observations at Roque de los Muchachos Observatory (ORM). For the model validation we used GNSS-based (Global Navigation Satellite System) data from the PWV monitor located at the ORM. We have run WRF every 24 h for near two months, with a horizon of 48 hours (hourly forecasts), from 2016 January 11 to 2016 March 4. These runs represent 1296 hourly forecast points. The validation is carried out using different approaches: performance as a function of the forecast range, time horizon accuracy, performance as a function of the PWV value, and performance of the operational WRF time series with 24- and 48-hour horizons. Excellent agreement was found between the model forecasts and observations, with R = 0.951 and R = 0.904 for the 24- and 48-h forecast time series respectively. The 48-h forecast was further improved by correcting a time lag of 2 h found in the predictions. The final errors, taking into account all the uncertainties involved, are 1.75 mm for the 24-h forecasts and 1.99 mm for 48 h. We found linear trends in both the correlation and RMSE of the residuals (measurements - forecasts) as a function of the forecast range within the horizons analysed (up to 48 h). In summary, the WRF performance is excellent and accurate, thus allowing it to be implemented as an operational tool at the ORM.
The atmospheric water vapor content above the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory (ORM) obtained from Global Positioning Systems (GPS) is presented. GPS measurements have been evaluated by comparison with 940nm-radiometer observations. Statistical ana
We present the largest database so far of atmospheric optical-turbulence profiles (197035 individual CN2(h)) for an astronomical site, the Roque de los Muchachos Observatory (La Palma, Spain). This C2 (h) database was obtained through generalized-SCI
A Low Humidity and Temperature Profiling (LHATPRO) microwave radiometer, manufactured by Radiometer Physics GmbH (RPG), is used to monitor sky conditions over ESOs Paranal observatory in support of VLT science operations. The unit measures several ch
In the search for small exoplanets orbiting cool stars whose spectral energy distributions peak in the near infrared, the strong absorption of radiation in this region due to water vapour in the atmosphere is a particularly adverse effect for the gro
Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks have been used extensively for time series forecasting in recent years due to their ability of learning patterns over different periods of time. In this paper, this ability is applied to learning the pattern of