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The forecast of the time of arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to Earth is of critical importance for our high-technology society and for any future manned exploration of the Solar System. As critical as the forecast accuracy is the knowledge of its precision, i.e. the error associated to the estimate. We propose a statistical approach for the computation of the time of arrival using the drag-based model by introducing the probability distributions, rather than exact values, as input parameters, thus allowing the evaluation of the uncertainty on the forecast. We test this approach using a set of CMEs whose transit times are known, and obtain extremely promising results: the average value of the absolute differences between measure and forecast is 9.1h, and half of these residuals are within the estimated errors. These results suggest that this approach deserves further investigation. We are working to realize a real-time implementation which ingests the outputs of automated CME tracking algorithms as inputs to create a database of events useful for a further validation of the approach.
There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space w
In the present paper, we investigate the power-law behaviour of the magnetic field spectra in the Earths magnetosheath region using Cluster spacecraft data under solar minimum condition. The power spectral density of the magnetic field data and spect
Pulsating stars, such as Cepheids, Miras, and RR Lyrae stars, are important distance indicators and calibrators of the cosmic distance ladder, and yet their period-luminosity-metallicity (PLZ) relations are still constrained using simple statistical
The Carrington storm (September 1/2, 1859) is one of the largest magnetic storms ever observed and it has caused global auroral displays in low-latitude areas, together with a series of multiple magnetic storms during August 28 and September 4, 1859.
Magnetic reconnection (MR) and the associated concurrently occurring waves have been extensively studied at large-scale plasma boundaries, in quasi-symmetric and asymmetric configurations in the terrestrial magnetotail and at the magnetopause. Recent