Statistics of Dark Matter Substructure: III. Halo-to-Halo Variance

We present a study of unprecedented statistical power regarding the halo-to-halo variance of dark matter substructure. Using a combination of N-body simulations and a semi-analytical model, we investigate the variance in subhalo mass fractions and subhalo occupation numbers, with an emphasis on how these statistics scale with halo formation time. We demonstrate that the subhalo mass fraction, f_sub, is mainly a function of halo formation time, with earlier forming haloes having less substructure. At fixed formation redshift, the average f_sub is virtually independent of halo mass, and the mass dependence of f_sub is therefore mainly a manifestation of more massive haloes assembling later. We compare observational constraints on f_sub from gravitational lensing to our model predictions and simulation results. Although the inferred f_sub are substantially higher than the median LCDM predictions, they fall within the 95th percentile due to halo-to-halo variance. We show that while the halo occupation distribution of subhaloes, P(N|M), is super-Poissonian for large <N>, a well established result, it becomes sub-Poissonian for <N> < 2. Ignoring the non-Poissonity results in systematic errors of the clustering of galaxies of a few percent, and with a complicated scale- and luminosity-dependence. Earlier-formed haloes have P(N|M) closer to a Poisson distribution, suggesting that the dynamical evolution of subhaloes drives the statistics towards Poissonian. Contrary to a recent claim, the non-Poissonity of subhalo occupation statistics does not vanish by selecting haloes with fixed mass and fixed formation redshift. Finally, we use subhalo occupation statistics to put loose constraints on the mass and formation redshift of the Milky Way halo. Using observational constraints on the V_max of the most massive satellites, we infer that 0.25<M_vir/10^12M_sun/h<1.4 and 0.1<z_f<1.4 at 90% confidence.