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A principal scientific goal of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) is obtaining milliarcsecond astrometry to constrain exoplanet orbits. However, astrometry of directly imaged exoplanets is subject to biases, systematic errors, and speckle noise. Here we describe an analytical procedure to forward model the signal of an exoplanet that accounts for both the observing strategy (angular and spectral differential imaging) and the data reduction method (Karhunen-Lo`eve Image Projection algorithm). We use this forward model to measure the position of an exoplanet in a Bayesian framework employing Gaussian processes and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to account for correlated noise. In the case of GPI data on $beta$ Pic b, this technique, which we call Bayesian KLIP-FM Astrometry (BKA), outperforms previous techniques and yields 1$sigma$-errors at or below the one milliarcsecond level. We validate BKA by fitting a Keplerian orbit to twelve GPI observations along with previous astrometry from other instruments. The statistical properties of the residuals confirm that BKA is accurate and correctly estimates astrometric errors. Our constraints on the orbit of $beta$ Pic b firmly rule out the possibility of a transit of the planet at 10-$sigma$ significance. However, we confirm that the Hill sphere of $beta$ Pic b will transit, giving us a rare chance to probe the circumplanetary environment of a young, evolving exoplanet. We provide an ephemeris for photometric monitoring of the Hill sphere transit event, which will begin at the start of April in 2017 and finish at the end of January in 2018.
We present $H$-band observations of $beta$ Pic with the Gemini Planet Imagers (GPIs) polarimetry mode that reveal the debris disk between ~0.3 (~6 AU) and ~1.7 (~33 AU), while simultaneously detecting $beta$ Pic $b$. The polarized disk image was fit
Photometric monitoring of Beta Pictoris in 1981 showed anomalous fluctuations of up to 4% over several days, consistent with foreground material transiting the stellar disk. The subsequent discovery of the gas giant planet Beta Pictoris b and the pre
We present new astrometry for the young (12--21 Myr) exoplanet beta Pictoris b taken with the Gemini/NICI and Magellan/MagAO instruments between 2009 and 2012. The high dynamic range of our observations allows us to measure the relative position of b
Context. {beta} Pictoris b is one of the most studied objects nowadays since it was identified with VLT/NaCo as a bona-fide exoplanet with a mass of about 9 times that of Jupiter at an orbital separation of 8-9 AU. The link between the planet and the
The intermediate-mass star Beta Pictoris is known to be surrounded by a structured edge-on debris disk within which a gas giant planet was discovered orbiting at 8-10 AU. The physical properties of Beta Pic b were previously inferred from broad and n