اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدAsymptotic behaviour of the empirical Bayes posteriors associated to maximum marginal likelihood estimator
78
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the marginal maximum likelihood empirical Bayes posterior distribution in general setting. First we characterize the set where the maximum marginal likelihood estimator is located with high probability. Then we provide oracle type of upper and lower bounds for the contraction rates of the empirical Bayes posterior. We also show that the hierarchical Bayes posterior achieves the same contraction rate as the maximum marginal likelihood empirical Bayes posterior. We demonstrate the applicability of our general results for various models and prior distributions by deriving upper and lower bounds for the contraction rates of the corresponding empirical and hierarchical Bayes posterior distributions.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
The saddlepoint approximation gives an approximation to the density of a random variable in terms of its moment generating function. When the underlying random variable is itself the sum of $n$ unobserved i.i.d. terms, the basic classical result is t
hat the relative error in the density is of order $1/n$. If instead the approximation is interpreted as a likelihood and maximised as a function of model parameters, the result is an approximation to the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) that can be much faster to compute than the true MLE. This paper proves the analogous basic result for the approximation error between the saddlepoint MLE and the true MLE: subject to certain explicit identifiability conditions, the error has asymptotic size $O(1/n^2)$ for some parameters, and $O(1/n^{3/2})$ or $O(1/n)$ for others. In all three cases, the approximation errors are asymptotically negligible compared to the inferential uncertainty. The proof is based on a factorisation of the saddlepoint likelihood into an exact and approximate term, along with an analysis of the approximation error in the gradient of the log-likelihood. This factorisation also gives insight into alternatives to the saddlepoint approximation, including a new and simpler saddlepoint approximation, for which we derive analogous error bounds. As a corollary of our results, we also obtain the asymptotic size of the MLE error approximation when the saddlepoint approximation is replaced by the normal approximation.
We present theoretical properties of the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator of a density based on an independent and identically distributed sample in $mathbb{R}^d$. Our study covers both the case where the true underlying density is log-concav
e, and where this model is misspecified. We begin by showing that for a sequence of log-concave densities, convergence in distribution implies much stronger types of convergence -- in particular, it implies convergence in Hellinger distance and even in certain exponentially weighted total variation norms. In our main result, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a log-concave density that minimises the Kullback--Leibler divergence from the true density over the class all log-concave densities, and also show that the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator converges almost surely in these exponentially weighted total variation norms to this minimiser. In the case of a correctly specified model, this demonstrates a strong type of consistency for the estimator; in a misspecified model, it shows that the estimator converges to the log-concave density that is closest in the Kullback--Leibler sense to the true density.
Models with multiple change points are used in many fields; however, the theoretical properties of maximum likelihood estimators of such models have received relatively little attention. The goal of this paper is to establish the asymptotic propertie
s of maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of a multiple change-point model for a general class of models in which the form of the distribution can change from segment to segment and in which, possibly, there are parameters that are common to all segments. Consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators of the change points is established and the rate of convergence is determined; the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the within-segment distributions is also derived. Since the approach used in single change-point models is not easily extended to multiple change-point models, these results require the introduction of those tools for analyzing the likelihood function in a multiple change-point model.
This paper explores a class of empirical Bayes methods for level-dependent threshold selection in wavelet shrinkage. The prior considered for each wavelet coefficient is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density. The mixi
ng weight, or sparsity parameter, for each level of the transform is chosen by marginal maximum likelihood. If estimation is carried out using the posterior median, this is a random thresholding procedure; the estimation can also be carried out using other thresholding rules with the same threshold. Details of the calculations needed for implementing the procedure are included. In practice, the estimates are quick to compute and there is software available. Simulations on the standard model functions show excellent performance, and applications to data drawn from various fields of application are used to explore the practical performance of the approach. By using a general result on the risk of the corresponding marginal maximum likelihood approach for a single sequence, overall bounds on the risk of the method are found subject to membership of the unknown function in one of a wide range of Besov classes, covering also the case of f of bounded variation. The rates obtained are optimal for any value of the parameter p in (0,infty], simultaneously for a wide range of loss functions, each dominating the L_q norm of the sigmath derivative, with sigmage0 and 0<qle2.
Datasets displaying temporal dependencies abound in science and engineering applications, with Markov models representing a simplified and popular view of the temporal dependence structure. In this paper, we consider Bayesian settings that place prio
r distributions over the parameters of the transition kernel of a Markov model, and seeks to characterize the resulting, typically intractable, posterior distributions. We present a PAC-Bayesian analysis of variational Bayes (VB) approximations to tempered Bayesian posterior distributions, bounding the model risk of the VB approximations. Tempered posteriors are known to be robust to model misspecification, and their variational approximations do not suffer the usual problems of over confident approximations. Our results tie the risk bounds to the mixing and ergodic properties of the Markov data generating model. We illustrate the PAC-Bayes bounds through a number of example Markov models, and also consider the situation where the Markov model is misspecified.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
