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We model the spreading of a crisis by constructing a global economic network and applying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with a variable probability of infection. The probability of infection depends on the strength of economic relations between the pair of countries, and the strength of the target country. It is expected that a crisis which originates in a large country, such as the USA, has the potential to spread globally, like the recent crisis. Surprisingly we show that also countries with much lower GDP, such as Belgium, are able to initiate a global crisis. Using the {it k}-shell decomposition method to quantify the spreading power (of a node), we obtain a measure of ``centrality as a spreader of each country in the economic network. We thus rank the different countries according to the shell they belong to, and find the 12 most central countries. These countries are the most likely to spread a crisis globally. Of these 12 only six are large economies, while the other six are medium/small ones, a result that could not have been otherwise anticipated. Furthermore, we use our model to predict the crisis spreading potential of countries belonging to different shells according to the crisis magnitude.
In this paper we present an empirical study of the worldwide maritime transportation network (WMN) in which the nodes are ports and links are container liners connecting the ports. Using the different representation of network topology namely the spa
The shape of urban settlements plays a fundamental role in their sustainable planning. Properly defining the boundaries of cities is challenging and remains an open problem in the Science of Cities. Here, we propose a worldwide model to define urban
Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not explain or pred
Viral videos can reach global penetration traveling through international channels of communication similarly to real diseases starting from a well-localized source. In past centuries, disease fronts propagated in a concentric spatial fashion from th
Urbanization plays a crucial role in the economic development of every country. The mutual relationship between the urbanization of any country and its economic productive structure is far from being understood. We analyzed the historical evolution o