ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

Icequakes as precursors of ice avalanches

107   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Jerome Faillettaz
 تاريخ النشر 2009
  مجال البحث فيزياء
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

A hanging glacier at the east face of Weisshorn broke off in 2005. We were able to monitor and measure surface motion and icequake activity for 21 days up to three days prior to the break-off. Results are presented from the analysis of seismic waves generated by the glacier during the rupture maturation process. Three types of precursory signals of the imminent catastrophic rupture were identified: (i) an increasing seismic activity within the glacier, (ii) a change in the size-frequency distribution of icequake energy, and (iii) a log-periodic oscillating behavior superimposed on power law acceleration of the inverse of waiting time between two icequakes. The analysis of the seismic activity gave indications of the rupture process and led to the identification of two regimes: a stable one where events are isolated and non correlated which is characteristic of diffuse damage, and an unstable and dangerous one in which events become synchronized and large icequakes are triggered.

قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the framework of fl icker-noise spectroscopy, a general statistical physics approach to the analysis of time series. We consider an example of cross-correlation analysis for water salinity time series, an integral characteristic of the chemical composition of groundwater, and geoacoustic emissions recorded at the G-1 borehole on the Kamchatka peninsula in the time frame from 2001 to 2003, which is characterized by a sequence of three groups of significant seismic events. We found that cross-correlation precursors took place 27, 31, and 35 days ahead of the strongest earthquakes for each group of seismic events, respectively. At the same time, precursory anomalies in the signals themselves were observed only in the geoacoustic emissions for one group of earthquakes.
We report a similarity of fluctuations in equilibrium critical phenomena and non-equilibrium systems, which is based on the concept of natural time. The world-wide seismicity as well as that of San Andreas fault system and Japan are analyzed. An orde r parameter is chosen and its fluctuations relative to the standard deviation of the distribution are studied. We find that the scaled distributions fall on the same curve, which interestingly exhibits, over four orders of magnitude, features similar to those in several equilibrium critical phenomena (e.g., 2D Ising model) as well as in non-equilibrium systems (e.g., 3D turbulent flow).
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered earthquakes. In n early all generalizations of the ETAS model, the magnitudes of the background and the triggered earthquakes are assumed to follow Gutenberg-Richter law with the same exponent (b{eta}-value). Furthermore, the magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes are always assumed to be independent of the magnitude of the triggering earthquake. Using an EM algorithm applied to the Californian earthquake catalogue, we show that the distribution of earthquake magnitudes exhibits three distinct b{eta}-values: b{eta}_b for background events; b{eta}_a-{delta} and b{eta}_a+{delta}, respectively, for triggered events below and above the magnitude of the triggering earthquake; the two last values express a correlation between the magnitudes of triggered events with that of the triggering earthquake, a feature so far absent in all proposed operational generalizations of the ETAS model. The ETAS model incorporating this kinked magnitude distribution provides by far the best description of seismic catalogs and could thus have the best forecasting potential. We speculate that the kinked magnitude distribution may result from the system tending to restore the symmetry of the regional displacement gradient tensor that has been broken by the initiating event. The general emerging concept could be that while the background events occur primarily to accommodate the symmetric stress tensor at the boundaries of the system, the triggered earthquakes are quasi-Goldstone fluctuations of a self-organized critical deformation state.
A promising method for real time early warning of gravity driven rupture that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. The method capitalizes on co-detection of elastic waves emanating from micro-cracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event co-detection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent co-detected events marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Using a spatially explicit fiber bundle numerical model with spatially correlated mechanical strength and two load redistribution rules, we constructed a range of mechanical failure scenarios and associated failure events (mapped into AE) in space and time. Analysis considering hypothetical arrays of sensors and consideration of signal attenuation demonstrate the potential of the co-detection principles even for insensitive sensors to provide early warning for imminent global failure.
We report on a novel stochastic analysis of seismic time series for the Earths vertical velocity, by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems, and in particular for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations of the detre nded increments of the series reveals a pronounced change of the shapes of the probability density functions (PDF) of the series increments. Before and close to an earthquake the shape of the PDF and the long-range correlation in the increments both manifest significant changes. For a moderate or large-size earthquake the typical time at which the PDF undergoes the transition from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian is about 5-10 hours. Thus, the transition represents a new precursor for detecting such earthquakes.
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا