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We present the Sequential Ensemble Transform (SET) method, an approach for generating approximate samples from a Bayesian posterior distribution. The method explores the posterior distribution by solving a sequence of discrete optimal transport problems to produce a series of transport plans which map prior samples to posterior samples. We prove that the sequence of Dirac mixture distributions produced by the SET method converges weakly to the true posterior as the sample size approaches infinity. Furthermore, our numerical results indicate that, when compared to standard Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, the SET approach is more robust to the choice of Markov mutation kernels and requires less computational efforts to reach a similar accuracy when used to explore complex posterior distributions. Finally, we describe adaptive schemes that allow to completely automate the use of the SET method.
The methodology developed in this article is motivated by a wide range of prediction and uncertainty quantification problems that arise in Statistics, Machine Learning and Applied Mathematics, such as non-parametric regression, multi-class classifica
We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often determined v
We consider the problem of estimating a parameter associated to a Bayesian inverse problem. Treating the unknown initial condition as a nuisance parameter, typically one must resort to a numerical approximation of gradient of the log-likelihood and a
We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet distributi
Several numerical tools designed to overcome the challenges of smoothing in a nonlinear and non-Gaussian setting are investigated for a class of particle smoothers. The considered family of smoothers is induced by the class of linear ensemble transfo