اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدToward a Unified Understanding of Casualty Distributions in Human Conflict
88
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
We are able to unify various disparate claims and results in the literature, that stand in the way of a unified description and understanding of human conflict. First, we provide a reconciliation of the numerically different exponent values for fatality distributions across entire wars and within single wars. Second, we explain how ignoring the details of how conflict datasets are compiled, can generate falsely negative evaluations from power-law distribution fitting. Third, we explain how a generative theory of human conflict is able to provide a quantitative explanation of how most observed casualty distributions follow approximate power-laws and how and why they deviate from it. In particular, it provides a unified mechanistic interpretation of the origin of these power-law deviations in terms of dynamical processes within the conflict. Combined, our findings strengthen the notion that a unified framework can be used to understand and quantitatively describe human conflict.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
Despite their importance for urban planning, traffic forecasting, and the spread of biological and mobile viruses, our understanding of the basic laws governing human motion remains limited thanks to the lack of tools to monitor the time resolved loc
ation of individuals. Here we study the trajectory of 100,000 anonymized mobile phone users whose position is tracked for a six month period. We find that in contrast with the random trajectories predicted by the prevailing Levy flight and random walk models, human trajectories show a high degree of temporal and spatial regularity, each individual being characterized by a time independent characteristic length scale and a significant probability to return to a few highly frequented locations. After correcting for differences in travel distances and the inherent anisotropy of each trajectory, the individual travel patterns collapse into a single spatial probability distribution, indicating that despite the diversity of their travel history, humans follow simple reproducible patterns. This inherent similarity in travel patterns could impact all phenomena driven by human mobility, from epidemic prevention to emergency response, urban planning and agent based modeling.
Studying human behaviour in virtual environments provides extraordinary opportunities for a quantitative analysis of social phenomena with levels of accuracy that approach those of the natural sciences. In this paper we use records of player activiti
es in the massive multiplayer online game Pardus over 1,238 consecutive days, and analyze dynamical features of sequences of actions of players. We build on previous work were temporal structures of human actions of the same type were quantified, and extend provide an empirical understanding of human actions of different types. This study of multi-level human activity can be seen as a dynamic counterpart of static multiplex network analysis. We show that the interevent time distributions of actions in the Pardus universe follow highly non-trivial distribution functions, from which we extract action-type specific characteristic decay constants. We discuss characteristic features of interevent time distributions, including periodic patterns on different time scales, bursty dynamics, and various functional forms on different time scales. We comment on gender differences of players in emotional actions, and find that while male and female act similarly when performing some positive actions, females are slightly faster for negative actions. We also observe effects on the age of players: more experienced players are generally faster in making decisions about engaging and terminating in enmity and friendship, respectively.
Over the past several decades, naturally occurring and man-made mass casualty incidents (MCI) have increased in frequency and number, worldwide. To test the impact of such event on medical resources, simulations can provide a safe, controlled setting
while replicating the chaotic environment typical of an actual disaster. A standardised method to collect and analyse data from mass casualty exercises is needed, in order to assess preparedness and performance of the healthcare staff involved. We report on the use of wearable proximity sensors to measure proximity events during a MCI simulation. We investigated the interactions between medical staff and patients, to evaluate the time dedicated by the medical staff with respect to the severity of the injury of the victims depending on the roles. We estimated the presence of the patients in the different spaces of the field hospital, in order to study the patients flow. Data were obtained and collected through the deployment of wearable proximity sensors during a mass casualty incident functional exercise. The scenario included two areas: the accident site and the Advanced Medical Post (AMP), and the exercise lasted 3 hours. A total of 238 participants simulating medical staff and victims were involved. Each participant wore a proximity sensor and 30 fixed devices were placed in the field hospital. The contact networks show a heterogeneous distribution of the cumulative time spent in proximity by participants. We obtained contact matrices based on cumulative time spent in proximity between victims and the rescuers. Our results showed that the time spent in proximity by the healthcare teams with the victims is related to the severity of the patients injury. The analysis of patients flow showed that the presence of patients in the rooms of the hospital is consistent with triage code and diagnosis, and no obvious bottlenecks were found.
Quantum Moves is a citizen science game that investigates the ability of humans to solve complex physics challenges that are intractable for computers. During the launch of Quantum Moves in April 2016 the games leaderboard function broke down resulti
ng in a no leaderboard game experience for some players for a couple of days (though their scores were still displayed). The subsequent quick fix of an all-time Top 5 leaderboard, and the following long-term implementation of a personalized relative-position (infinite) leaderboard provided us with a unique opportunity to compare and investigate the effect of different leaderboard implementations on player performance in a points-driven citizen science game. All three conditions were live sequentially during the games initial influx of more than 150.000 players that stemmed from global press attention on Quantum Moves due the publication of a Nature paper about the use of Quantum Moves in solving a specific quantum physics problem. Thus, it has been possible to compare the three conditions and their influence on the performance (defined as a players quality of game play related to a high-score) of over 4500 new players. These 4500 odd players in our three leaderboard-conditions have a similar demographic background based upon the time-window over which the implementations occurred and controlled against Player ID tags. Our results placed Condition 1 experience over condition 3 and in some cases even over condition 2 which goes against the general assumption that leaderboards enhance gameplay and its subsequent overuse as a an oft-relied upon element that designers slap onto a game to enhance said appeal. Our study thus questions the use of leaderboards as general performance enhancers in gamification contexts and brings some empirical rigor to an often under-reported but overused phenomenon.
It is widely assumed that human exploration beyond Earths orbit will require vehicles capable of providing long-duration habitats that simulate an Earthlike environment: consistent artificial gravity, breathable atmosphere, and sufficient living spac
e- while requiring the minimum possible launch mass. This paper examines how the qualities of digital cellular solids - high-performance, repairability, reconfigurability, tunable mechanical response - allow the accomplishment of long-duration habitat objectives at a fraction of the mass required for traditional structural technologies. To illustrate the impact digital cellular solids could make as a replacement to conventional habitat subsystems, we compare recent proposed deep space habitat structural systems with a digital cellular solids pressure vessel design that consists of a carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) digital cellular solid cylindrical framework that is lined with an ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) skin. We use the analytical treatment of a linear specific modulus scaling cellular solid to find the minimum mass pressure vessel for a structure and find that, for equivalent habitable volume and appropriate safety factors, the use of digital cellular solids provides clear methods for producing structures that are not only repairable and reconfigurable, but also higher performance than their conventionally-manufactured counterparts.
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
