ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

The frontier of simulation-based inference

196   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Johann Brehmer Mr
 تاريخ النشر 2019
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

Many domains of science have developed complex simulations to describe phenomena of interest. While these simulations provide high-fidelity models, they are poorly suited for inference and lead to challenging inverse problems. We review the rapidly developing field of simulation-based inference and identify the forces giving new momentum to the field. Finally, we describe how the frontier is expanding so that a broad audience can appreciate the profound change these developments may have on science.



قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

We revisit empirical Bayes in the absence of a tractable likelihood function, as is typical in scientific domains relying on computer simulations. We investigate how the empirical Bayesian can make use of neural density estimators first to use all no ise-corrupted observations to estimate a prior or source distribution over uncorrupted samples, and then to perform single-observation posterior inference using the fitted source distribution. We propose an approach based on the direct maximization of the log-marginal likelihood of the observations, examining both biased and de-biased estimators, and comparing to variational approaches. We find that, up to symmetries, a neural empirical Bayes approach recovers ground truth source distributions. With the learned source distribution in hand, we show the applicability to likelihood-free inference and examine the quality of the resulting posterior estimates. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of Neural Empirical Bayes on an inverse problem from collider physics.
104 - Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo 2019
Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification (posterior credible sets). We investigate Bayesian inference for avera ge treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging problem due to the missing counterfactuals and selection bias. Working in the standard potential outcomes framework, we propose a data-driven modification to an arbitrary (nonparametric) prior based on the propensity score that corrects for the first-order posterior bias, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our method for Gaussian process (GP) priors using (semi-)synthetic data. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvement in both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to the unmodified GP, rendering our approach highly competitive with the state-of-the-art.
This paper develops an efficient distributed inference algorithm, which is robust against a moderate fraction of Byzantine nodes, namely arbitrary and possibly adversarial machines in a distributed learning system. In robust statistics, the median-of -means (MOM) has been a popular approach to hedge against Byzantine failures due to its ease of implementation and computational efficiency. However, the MOM estimator has the shortcoming in terms of statistical efficiency. The first main contribution of the paper is to propose a variance reduced median-of-means (VRMOM) estimator, which improves the statistical efficiency over the vanilla MOM estimator and is computationally as efficient as the MOM. Based on the proposed VRMOM estimator, we develop a general distributed inference algorithm that is robust against Byzantine failures. Theoretically, our distributed algorithm achieves a fast convergence rate with only a constant number of rounds of communications. We also provide the asymptotic normality result for the purpose of statistical inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first normality result in the setting of Byzantine-robust distributed learning. The simulation results are also presented to illustrate the effectiveness of our method.
We develop a sequential low-complexity inference procedure for Dirichlet process mixtures of Gaussians for online clustering and parameter estimation when the number of clusters are unknown a-priori. We present an easily computable, closed form param etric expression for the conditional likelihood, in which hyperparameters are recursively updated as a function of the streaming data assuming conjugate priors. Motivated by large-sample asymptotics, we propose a novel adaptive low-complexity design for the Dirichlet process concentration parameter and show that the number of classes grow at most at a logarithmic rate. We further prove that in the large-sample limit, the conditional likelihood and data predictive distribution become asymptotically Gaussian. We demonstrate through experiments on synthetic and real data sets that our approach is superior to other online state-of-the-art methods.
We introduce a novel rule-based approach for handling regression problems. The new methodology carries elements from two frameworks: (i) it provides information about the uncertainty of the parameters of interest using Bayesian inference, and (ii) it allows the incorporation of expert knowledge through rule-based systems. The blending of those two different frameworks can be particularly beneficial for various domains (e.g. engineering), where, even though the significance of uncertainty quantification motivates a Bayesian approach, there is no simple way to incorporate researcher intuition into the model. We validate our models by applying them to synthetic applications: a simple linear regression problem and two more complex structures based on partial differential equations. Finally, we review the advantages of our methodology, which include the simplicity of the implementation, the uncertainty reduction due to the added information and, in some occasions, the derivation of better point predictions, and we address limitations, mainly from the computational complexity perspective, such as the difficulty in choosing an appropriate algorithm and the added computational burden.

الأسئلة المقترحة

التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا