A pre-outburst signal in the long term optical lightcurve of the recurrent nova RS Ophiuchi

Recurrent novae are binary stars in which a white dwarf accretes matter from a less evolved companion, either a red giant or a main-sequence star. They have dramatic optical brightenings of around 5-6 mag in V in less than a day, several times a century. These occur at variable and unpredictable intervals, and are followed by an optical decline over several weeks, and activity from the X-ray to the radio. The unpredictability of recurrent novae and related stellar types can hamper systematic study of their outbursts. Here we analyse the long-term lightcurve of RS Ophiuchi, a recurrent nova with six confirmed outbursts, most recently in 2006 February. We confirm the previously suspected 1945 outburst, largely obscured in a seasonal gap. We also find a signal via wavelet analysis that can be used to predict an incipient outburst up to a few hundred days before hand. This has never before been possible. In addition this may suggest that the preferred thermonuclear runaway mechanism for the outbursts will have to be modified, as no pre-outburst signal is anticipated in that case. If our result indeed points to gaps in our understanding of how outbursts are driven, we will need to study such objects carefully to determine if the white dwarf is growing in mass, an essential factor if these systems are to become Type Ia Supernovae. Determining the likelihood of recurrent novae being an important source population will have implications for stellar and galaxy evolution.

Double radio peak and non-thermal collimated ejecta in RS Ophiuchi following the 2006 outburst

We report MERLIN, VLA, OCRA-p, VLBA, Effelsberg and GMRT observations beginning 4.5 days after the discovery of RS Ophiuchi undergoing its 2006 recurrent nova outburst. Observations over the first 9 weeks are included, enabling us to follow spectral development throughout the three phases of the remnant development. We see dramatic brightening on days 4 to 7 at 6 GHz and an accompanying increase in other bands, particularly 1.46 GHz, consistent with transition from the initial free expansion phase to the adiabatic expansion phase. This is complete by day 13 when the flux density at 5 GHz is apparently declining from an unexpectedly early maximum (compared with expectations from observations of the 1985 outburst). The flux density recovered to a second peak by approximately day 40, consistent with behaviour observed in 1985. At all times the spectral index is consistent with mixed non-thermal and thermal emission. The spectral indices are consistent with a non-thermal component at lower frequencies on all dates, and the spectral index changes show that the two components are clearly variable. The estimated extent of the emission at 22 GHz on day 59 is consistent with the extended east and west features seen at 1.7 GHz with the VLBA on day 63 being entirely non-thermal. We suggest a two-component model, consisting of a decelerating shell seen in mixed thermal and non-thermal emission plus faster bipolar ejecta generating the non-thermal emission, as seen in contemporaneous VLBA observations. Our estimated ejecta mass of 4+/-2x10^{-7} M_odot is consistent with a WD mass of 1.4 M_odot. It may be that this ejecta mass estimate is a lower limit, in which case a lower WD mass would be consistent with the data.