Several tools have been developed in the past few years for the statistical analysis of the exoplanet search surveys, mostly using a combination of Monte-Carlo simulations or a Bayesian approach.Here we present the Quick-MESS, a grid-based, non-Monte
Carlo tool aimed to perform statistical analyses on results from and help with the planning of direct imaging surveys. Quick-MESS uses the (expected) contrast curves for direct imaging surveys to assess for each target the probability that a planet of a given mass and semi-major axis can be detected. By using a grid-based approach Quick-MESS is typically more than an order of magnitude faster than tools based on Monte-Carlo sampling of the planet distribution. In addition, Quick-MESS is extremely flexible, enabling the study of a large range of parameter space for the mass and semi-major axes distributions without the need of re-simulating the planet distribution. In order to show examples of the capabilities of the Quick-MESS, we present the analysis of the Gemini Deep Planet Survey and the predictions for upcoming surveys with extreme-AO instruments.
Recent sub-millimetric observations at the Plateau de Bure interferometer evidenced a cavity at ~ 46 AU in radius into the proto-planetary disk around the T Tauri star LkCa15 (V1079 Tau), located in the Taurus molecular cloud. Additional Spitzer obse
rvations have corroborated this result possibly explained by the presence of a massive (>= 5 MJup) planetary mass, a brown dwarf or a low mass star companion at about 30 AU from the star. We used the most recent developments of high angular resolution and high contrast imaging to search directly for the existence of this putative companion, and to bring new constraints on its physical and orbital properties. The NACO adaptive optics instrument at VLT was used to observe LkCa15 using a four quadrant phase mask coronagraph to access small angular separations at relatively high contrast. A reference star at the same parallactic angle was carefully observed to optimize the quasi-static speckles subtraction (limiting our sensitivity at less than 1.0). Although we do not report any positive detection of a faint companion that would be responsible for the observed gap in LkCa15s disk (25-30 AU), our detection limits start constraining its probable mass, semi-major axis and eccentricity. Using evolutionary model predictions, Monte Carlo simulations exclude the presence of low eccentric companions with masses M >= 6 M Jup and orbiting at a >= 100 AU with significant level of confidence. For closer orbits, brown dwarf companions can be rejected with a detection probability of 90% down to 80 AU (at 80% down to 60 AU). Our detection limits do not access the star environment close enough to fully exclude the presence of a brown dwarf or a massive planet within the disk inner activity (i.e at less than 30 AU). Only, further and higher contrast observations should unveil the existence of this putative companion inside the LkCa15 disk.
