We present an empirical model based on the visible area covered by coronal holes close to the central meridian in order to predict the solar wind speed at 1 AU with a lead time up to four days in advance with a 1hr time resolution. Linear prediction
functions are used to relate coronal hole areas to solar wind speed. The function parameters are automatically adapted by using the information from the previous 3 Carrington Rotations. Thus the algorithm automatically reacts on the changes of the solar wind speed during different phases of the solar cycle. The adaptive algorithm has been applied to and tested on SDO/AIA-193A observations and ACE measurements during the years 2011-2013, covering 41 Carrington Rotations. The solar wind speed arrival time is delayed and needs on average 4.02 +/- 0.5 days to reach Earth. The algorithm produces good predictions for the 156 solar wind high speed streams peak amplitudes with correlation coefficients of cc~0.60. For 80% of the peaks, the predicted arrival matches within a time window of 0.5 days of the ACE in situ measurements. The same algorithm, using linear predictions, was also applied to predict the magnetic field strength from coronal hole areas but did not give reliable predictions (cc~0.2).
We present a detailed study of the interaction process of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) successively launched on 2011 February 14 (CME1) and 2011 February 15 (CME2). Reconstructing the 3D shape and evolution of the flux ropes we verify that the t
wo CMEs interact. The frontal structure of both CMEs measured along different position angles (PA) over the entire latitudinal extent, reveals differences in the kinematics for the interacting flanks and the apexes. The interaction process is strongly PA-dependent in terms of timing as well as kinematical evolution. The central interaction occurs along PA-100{deg}, which shows the strongest changes in kinematics. During interaction, CME1 accelerates from ~400 km/s to ~700 km/s and CME2 decelerates from ~1300 km/s to ~600 km/s. Our results indicate that a simplified scenario like inelastic collision may not be sufficient to describe the CME-CME interaction. Magnetic field structures of the intertwining flux ropes as well as momentum transfer due to shocks play an important role in the interaction process.
Using combined STEREO-A and STEREO-B EUVI, COR1 and COR2 data, we derive deprojected CME kinematics and CME `true mass evolutions for a sample of 25 events that occurred during December 2007 to April 2011. We develop a fitting function to describe th
e CME mass evolution with height. The function considers both the effect of the coronagraph occulter, at the beginning of the CME evolution, and an actual mass increase. The latter becomes important at about 10Rs to 15Rs and is assumed to mostly contribute up to 20Rs. The mass increase ranges from 2% to 6% per Rs and, is positively correlated to the total CME mass. Due to the combination of COR1 and COR2 mass measurements, we are able to estimate the `true mass value for very low coronal heights (< 3Rs). Based on the deprojected CME kinematics and initial ejected masses, we derive the kinetic energies and propelling forces acting on the CME in the low corona (< 3Rs). The derived CME kinetic energies range between 1-66*10^23 J, and the forces range between 2.2-510*10^14 N.
We study the 17 January 2010 flare-CME-wave event by using STEREO/SECCHI EUVI and COR1 data. The observational study is combined with an analytic model which simulates the evolution of the coronal-wave phenomenon associated with the event. From EUV o
bservations, the wave signature appears to be dome shaped having a component propagating on the solar surface (v~280 km s-1) as well as off-disk (v~600 km s-1) away from the Sun. The off-disk dome of the wave consists of two enhancements in intensity, which conjointly develop and can be followed up to white-light coronagraph images. Applying an analytic model, we derive that these intensity variations belong to a wave-driver system with a weakly shocked wave, initially driven by expanding loops, which are indicative of the early evolution phase of the accompanying CME. We obtain the shock standoff distance between wave and driver from observations as well as from model results. The shock standoff distance close to the Sun (<0.3 Rs above the solar surface) is found to rapidly increase with values of ~0.03-0.09 Rs which give evidence of an initial lateral (over-)expansion of the CME. The kinematical evolution of the on-disk wave could be modeled using input parameters which require a more impulsive driver (t=90 s, a=1.7 km s-2) compared to the off-disk component (t=340 s, a=1.5 km s-2).
We study the interaction of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the 2010 August 1 events using STEREO/SECCHI COR and HI data. We obtain the direction of motion for both CMEs by applying several independent reconstruction methods and f
ind that the CMEs head in similar directions. This provides evidence that a full interaction takes place between the two CMEs that can be observed in the HI1 field-of-view. The full de-projected kinematics of the faster CME from Sun to Earth is derived by combining remote observations with in situ measurements of the CME at 1 AU. The speed profile of the faster CME (CME2; ~1200 km/s) shows a strong deceleration over the distance range at which it reaches the slower, preceding CME (CME1; ~700 km/s). By applying a drag-based model we are able to reproduce the kinematical profile of CME2 suggesting that CME1 represents a magnetohydrodynamic obstacle for CME2 and that, after the interaction, the merged entity propagates as a single structure in an ambient flow of speed and density typical for quiet solar wind conditions. Observational facts show that magnetic forces may contribute to the enhanced deceleration of CME2. We speculate that the increase in magnetic tension and pressure, when CME2 bends and compresses the magnetic field lines of CME1, increases the efficiency of drag.
We study three CME/ICME events (2008 June 1-6, 2009 February 13-18, 2010 April 3-5) tracked from Sun to 1 AU in remote-sensing observations of STEREO Heliospheric Imagers and in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements. We focus on the ICME propag
ation in IP space that is governed by two forces, the propelling Lorentz force and the drag force. We address the question at which heliospheric distance range the drag becomes dominant and the CME gets adjusted to the solar wind flow. To this aim we analyze speed differences between ICMEs and the ambient solar wind flow as function of distance. The evolution of the ambient solar wind flow is derived from ENLIL 3D MHD model runs using different solar wind models, namely Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) and MHD-Around-A-Sphere (MAS). Comparing the measured CME kinematics with the solar wind models we find that the CME speed gets adjusted to the solar wind speed at very different heliospheric distances in the three events under study: from below 30 Rs, to beyond 1 AU, depending on the CME and ambient solar wind characteristics. ENLIL can be used to derive important information about the overall structure of the background solar wind, providing more reliable results during times of low solar activity than during times of high solar activity. The results from this study enable us to get a better insight into the forces acting on CMEs over the IP space distance range, which is an important prerequisite in order to predict their 1 AU transit times.
We present the first observations of a global coronal wave (EIT wave) from the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) satellites in quadra- ture. The waves initiation site was at the disk center in STEREO-B and precisely on the limb in
STEREO-A. These unprecedented observations from the STEREO Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging (EUVI) instruments enable us to gain insight into the waves kinematics, initiation and 3D structure. The wave propagates globally over the whole solar hemisphere visible to STEREO-B with a constant velocity of 263+/-16 km/s. From the two STEREO observations we derive a height of the wave in the range of 80-100 Mm. Comparison of the wave kinematics with the early phase of the erupting CME structure indicates that the wave is initiated by the CME lateral expansion, and then propagates freely with a velocity close to the fast magnetosonic speed in the quiet solar corona.
