We give exact formulae for a wide family of complexity measures that capture the organization of hidden nonlinear processes. The spectral decomposition of operator-valued functions leads to closed-form expressions involving the full eigenvalue spectr
um of the mixed-state presentation of a processs epsilon-machine causal-state dynamic. Measures include correlation functions, power spectra, past-future mutual information, transient and synchronization informations, and many others. As a result, a direct and complete analysis of intrinsic computation is now available for the temporal organization of finitary hidden Markov models and nonlinear dynamical systems with generating partitions and for the spatial organization in one-dimensional systems, including spin systems, cellular automata, and complex materials via chaotic crystallography.
We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian Structural Inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar HMM (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from
a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological epsilon-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be epsilon-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of epsilon-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSIs effectiveness in estimating a processs randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.
We investigate a stationary processs crypticity---a measure of the difference between its hidden state information and its observed information---using the causal states of computational mechanics. Here, we motivate crypticity and cryptic order as ph
ysically meaningful quantities that monitor how hidden a hidden process is. This is done by recasting previous results on the convergence of block entropy and block-state entropy in a geometric setting, one that is more intuitive and that leads to a number of new results. For example, we connect crypticity to how an observer synchronizes to a process. We show that the block-causal-state entropy is a convex function of block length. We give a complete analysis of spin chains. We present a classification scheme that surveys stationary processes in terms of their possible cryptic and Markov orders. We illustrate related entropy convergence behaviors using a new form of foliated information diagram. Finally, along the way, we provide a variety of interpretations of crypticity and cryptic order to establish their naturalness and pervasiveness. Hopefully, these will inspire new applications in spatially extended and network dynamical systems.
We study dynamical reversibility in stationary stochastic processes from an information theoretic perspective. Extending earlier work on the reversibility of Markov chains, we focus on finitary processes with arbitrarily long conditional correlations
. In particular, we examine stationary processes represented or generated by edge-emitting, finite-state hidden Markov models. Surprisingly, we find pervasive temporal asymmetries in the statistics of such stationary processes with the consequence that the computational resources necessary to generate a process in the forward and reverse temporal directions are generally not the same. In fact, an exhaustive survey indicates that most stationary processes are irreversible. We study the ensuing relations between model topology in different representations, the processs statistical properties, and its reversibility in detail. A processs temporal asymmetry is efficiently captured using two canonical unifilar representations of the generating model, the forward-time and reverse-time epsilon-machines. We analyze example irreversible processes whose epsilon-machine presentations change size under time reversal, including one which has a finite number of recurrent causal states in one direction, but an infinite number in the opposite. From the forward-time and reverse-time epsilon-machines, we are able to construct a symmetrized, but nonunifilar, generator of a process---the bidirectional machine. Using the bidirectional machine, we show how to directly calculate a processs fundamental information properties, many of which are otherwise only poorly approximated via process samples. The tools we introduce and the insights we offer provide a better understanding of the many facets of reversibility and irreversibility in stochastic processes.
