Microwave propelled sails are a new class of spacecraft using photon acceleration. It is the only method of interstellar flight that has no physics issues. Laboratory demonstrations of basic features of beam-driven propulsion, flight, stability (beam
-riding), and induced spin, have been completed in the last decade, primarily in the microwave. It offers much lower cost probes after a substantial investment in the launcher. Engineering issues are being addressed by other applications: fusion (microwave, millimeter and laser sources) and astronomy (large aperture antennas). There are many candidate sail materials: carbon nanotubes and microtrusses, graphene, beryllium, etc. For acceleration of a sail, what is the cost-optimum high power system? Here the cost is used to constrain design parameters to estimate system power, aperture and elements of capital and operating cost. From general relations for cost-optimal transmitter aperture and power, system cost scales with kinetic energy and inversely with sail diameter and frequency. So optimal sails will be larger, lower in mass and driven by higher frequency beams. Estimated costs include economies of scale. We present several starship point concepts. Systems based on microwave, millimeter wave and laser technologies are of equal cost at todays costs. The frequency advantage of lasers is cancelled by the high cost of both the laser and the radiating optic.
We advocate international consultations on societal and technical issues to address the risk problem, and a moratorium on future METI transmissions until such issues are resolved. Instead, we recommend continuing to conduct SETI by listening, with no
innate risk, while using powerful new search systems to give a better total probability of detection of beacons and messages than METI for the same cost, and with no need for a long obligatory wait for a response. Realistically, beacons are costly. In light of recent work on the economics of contact by radio, we offer alternatives to the current standard of SETI searches. Historical leakage from Earth has been undetectable as messages for credible receiver systems. Transmissions (messages) to date are faint and very unlikely to be detected, even by very nearby stars. Future space microwave and laser power systems will likely be more visible.
How would observers differentiate Beacons from pulsars or other exotic sources, in light of likely Beacon observables? Bandwidth, pulse width and frequency may be distinguishing features. Such transients could be evidence of civilizations slightly higher than ourselves on the Kardashev scale.
In Newcombs paradox you choose to receive either the contents of a particular closed box, or the contents of both that closed box and another one. Before you choose, a prediction algorithm deduces your choice, and fills the two boxes based on that de
duction. Newcombs paradox is that game theory appears to provide two conflicting recommendations for what choice you should make in this scenario. We analyze Newcombs paradox using a recent extension of game theory in which the players set conditional probability distributions in a Bayes net. We show that the two game theory recommendations in Newcombs scenario have different presumptions for what Bayes net relates your choice and the algorithms prediction. We resolve the paradox by proving that these two Bayes nets are incompatible. We also show that the accuracy of the algorithms prediction, the focus of much previous work, is irrelevant. In addition we show that Newcombs scenario only provides a contradiction between game theorys expected utility and dominance principles if one is sloppy in specifying the underlying Bayes net. We also show that Newcombs paradox is time-reversal invariant; both the paradox and its resolution are unchanged if the algorithm makes its `prediction after you make your choice rather than before.
What would SETI Beacon transmitters be like if built by civilizations with a variety of motivations, but who cared about cost? We studied in a companion paper how, for fixed power density in the far field, we could build a cost-optimum interstellar B
eacon system. Here we consider, if someone like us were to produce a Beacon, how should we look for it? High-power transmitters might be built for wide variety of motives other than twoway communication; Beacons built to be seen over thousands of light years are such. Altruistic Beacon builders will have to contend with other altruistic causes, just as humans do, so may select for economy of effort. Cost, spectral lines near 1 GHz and interstellar scintillation favor radiating frequencies substantially above the classic water hole. Therefore the transmission strategy for a distant, cost-conscious Beacon will be a rapid scan of the galactic plane, to cover the angular space. Such pulses will be infrequent events for the receiver. Such Beacons built by distant advanced, wealthy societies will have very different characteristics from what SETI researchers seek. Future searches should pay special attention to areas along the galactic disk where SETI searches have seen coherent signals that have not recurred on the limited listening time intervals we have used. We will need to wait for recurring events that may arrive in intermittent bursts. Several new SETI search strategies emerge from these ideas. We propose a new test for SETI Beacons, based on the Life Plane hypotheses.
This paper considers galactic scale Beacons from the point of view of expense to a builder on Earth. For fixed power density in the far field, what is the cost-optimum interstellar Beacon system? Experience shows an optimum tradeoff, depending on tra
nsmission frequency and on antenna size and power. This emerges by minimizing the cost of producing a desired effective isotropic radiated power, which in turn determines the maximum range of detectability of a transmitted signal. We derive general relations for cost-optimal aperture and power. For linear dependence of capital cost on transmitter power and antenna area, minimum capital cost occurs when the cost is equally divided between antenna gain and radiated power. For non-linear power law dependence a similar simple division occurs. This is validated in cost data for many systems; industry uses this cost optimum as a rule-of-thumb. Costs of pulsed cost-efficient transmitters are estimated from these relations using current cost parameters ($/W, $/m2) as a basis. Galactic-scale Beacons demand effective isotropic radiated power >1017 W, emitted powers are >1 GW, with antenna areas > km2. We show the scaling and give examples of such Beacons. Thrifty beacon systems would be large and costly, have narrow searchlight beams and short dwell times when the Beacon would be seen by an alien oberver at target areas in the sky. They may revisit an area infrequently and will likely transmit at higher microwave frequencies, ~10 GHz. The natural corridor to broadcast is along the galactic spiral radius or along the spiral galactic arm we are in. Our second paper argues that nearly all SETI searches to date had little chance of seeing such Beacons.
