We study the impact on the epidemiological dynamics of a class of restrictive measures that are aimed at reducing the number of contacts of individuals who have a higher risk of being infected with a transmittable disease. Such measures are currently
either implemented or at least discussed in numerous countries worldwide to ward off a potential new wave of COVID-19 across Europe. They come in the form of Health Passes (HP), which grant full access to public life only to individuals with a certificate that proves that they have either been fully vaccinated, have recovered from a previous infection or have recently tested negative to SARS-Cov-19 . We develop both a compartmental model as well as an epidemic Renormalisation Group approach, which is capable of describing the dynamics over a longer period of time, notably an entire epidemiological wave. Introducing differe
Never before such a vast amount of data has been collected for any viral pandemic than for the current case of COVID-19. This offers the possibility to answer a number of highly relevant questions, regarding the evolution of the virus and the role mu
tations play in its spread among the population. We focus on spike proteins, as they bear the main responsibility for the effectiveness of the virus diffusion by controlling the interactions with the host cells. Using the available temporal structure of the sequencing data for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in the UK, we demonstrate that every wave of the pandemic is dominated by a different variant. Consequently, the time evolution of each variant follows a temporal structure encoded in the epidemiological Renormalisation Group approach to compartmental models. Machine learning is the tool of choice to determine the variants at play, independent of (but complementary to) the virological classification. Our Machine Learning algorithm on spike protein sequencing provides a simple and unbiased way to identify, classify and track relevant virus variants without any prior knowledge of their characteristics. Hence, we propose a new tool that can help preventing and forecasting the emergence of new waves, and that can be used by decision makers to define short and long term strategies to curb the current COVID-19 pandemic or future ones.
We propose a physical theory underlying the temporal evolution of competing virus variants that relies on the existence of (quasi) fixed points capturing the large time scale invariance of the dynamics. To motivate our result we first modify the time
-honoured compartmental models of the SIR type to account for the existence of competing variants and then show how their evolution can be naturally re-phrased in terms of flow equations ending at quasi fixed points. As the natural next step we employ (near) scale invariance to organise the time evolution of the competing variants within the effective description of the epidemic Renormalization Group framework. We test the resulting theory against the time evolution of COVID-19 virus variants that validate the theory empirically.
Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late 2019. It is
therefore imperative to develop efficient mathematical models, able to substantially curb the damages of a pandemic by unveiling disease spreading dynamics and symmetries. This will help inform (non)-pharmaceutical prevention strategies. For the reasons above we wrote this report that goes at the heart of mathematical modelling of infectious disease diffusion by simultaneously investigating the underlying microscopic dynamics in terms of percolation models, effective description via compartmental models and the employment of temporal symmetries naturally encoded in the mathematical language of critical phenomena. Our report reviews these approaches and determines their common denominators, relevant for theoretical epidemiology and its link to important concepts in theoretical physics. We show that the different frameworks exhibit common features such as criticality and self-similarity under time rescaling. These features are naturally encoded within the unifying field theoretical approach. The latter leads to an efficient description of the time evolution of the disease via a framework in which (near) time-dilation invariance is explicitly realised. As important test of the relevance of symmetries we show how to mathematically account for observed phenomena such as multi-wave dynamics. The models presented here are of immediate relevance for different realms of scientific enquiry from medical applications to the understanding of human behaviour. Our review offers novel perspectives on how to model, capture, organise and understand epidemiological data and disease dynamics for modelling real-world phenomena.
We employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source flight data alo
ngside the impact of social distancing for each such division. We analyse the impact of the vaccination strategy on the current pandemic wave dynamics in the US. We observe that the ongoing vaccination campaign will not impact the current pandemic wave and therefore strict social distancing measures must still be enacted. To curb the current and the next waves our results indisputably show that vaccinations alone are not enough and strict social distancing measures are required until sufficient immunity is achieved. Our results are essential for a successful vaccination strategy in the US.
Composite Higgs models can be extended to the Planck scale by means of the partially unified partial compositeness (PUPC) framework. We present in detail the Techni-Pati-Salam model, based on a renormalizable gauge theory $SU(8)_{PS}times SU(2)_Ltime
s SU(2)_R$. We demonstrate that masses and mixings for all generations of standard model fermions can be obtained via partial compositeness at low energy, with four-fermion operators mediated by either heavy gauge bosons or scalars. The strong dynamics is predicted to be that of a confining $Sp(4)_{rm HC}$ gauge group, with hyper-fermions in the fundamental and two-index anti-symmetric representations, with fixed multiplicities. This motivates for Lattice studies of the Infra-Red near-conformal walking phase, with results that may validate or rule out the model. This is the first complete and realistic attempt at providing an Ultra-Violet completion for composite Higgs models with top partial compositeness. In the baryon-number conserving vacuum, the theory also predicts a Dark Matter candidate, with mass in the few TeV range, protected by semi-integer baryon number.
We present an extension of the large $N_f$ formalism that allows to study cases with multiple fermion representations. The pole structure in the beta function is traced back to the intrinsic non-abelian nature of the gauge group, independently on the
fermion representation. This result validates the conjectured existence of an interactive UV fixed point for non-abelian gauge theories with large fermion multiplicity. Finally, we apply our results to chiral gauge theories and to extended Grand Unified Theories.
We provide a unified description, both at the effective and fundamental Lagrangian level, of models of composite Higgs dynamics where the Higgs itself can emerge, depending on the way the electroweak symmetry is embedded, either as a pseudo-Goldstone
boson or as a massive excitation of the condensate. We show that, in general, these states mix with repercussions on the electroweak physics and phenomenology. Our results will help clarify the main differences, similarities, benefits and shortcomings of the different ways one can naturally realize a composite nature of the electroweak sector of the Standard Model. We will analyze the minimal underlying realization in terms of fundamental strongly coupled gauge theories supporting the flavor symmetry breaking pattern SU(4)/Sp(4) $sim$ SO(6)/SO(5). The most minimal fundamental description consists of an SU(2) gauge theory with two Dirac fermions transforming according to the fundamental representation of the gauge group. This minimal choice enables us to use recent first principle lattice results to make the first predictions for the massive spectrum for models of composite (Goldstone) Higgs dynamics. These results are of the upmost relevance to guide searches of new physics at the Large Hadron Collider.
Little Higgs models with T-parity can easily satisfy electroweak precision tests and at the same time give a stable particle which is a candidate for cold dark matter. In addition to little Higgs heavy gauge bosons, this type of models predicts a set
of new T-odd fermions, which may show quite interesting signatures at colliders. We study purely leptonic signatures of T-odd leptons at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC).
Little Higgs models are often endowed with a T-parity in order to satisfy electroweak precision tests and give at the same time a stable particle which is a candidate for cold dark matter. This type of models predicts a set of new T-odd fermions in a
ddition to the heavy gauge bosons of the Little Higgs models, which may show interesting signatures at colliders. In this paper, we study the signatures of strong and electroweak pair production of the first two generations of T-odd quarks at the LHC. We focus on the dileptonic signatures (p p to l l j j MET) with (a) opposite-sign dileptons and (b) same-sign dileptons.
